ANALISIS PENCARIAN DATA CURAH HUJAN YANG HILANG DENGAN MODEL PERIODIK STOKASTIK (STUDI KASUS WILAYAH KABUPATEN PRINGSEWU)

Ikromi Fahmi, 1225011013 (2015) ANALISIS PENCARIAN DATA CURAH HUJAN YANG HILANG DENGAN MODEL PERIODIK STOKASTIK (STUDI KASUS WILAYAH KABUPATEN PRINGSEWU). Masters thesis, Universitas Lampung.

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Abstrak

ABSTRAK ANALISIS PENCARIAN DATA CURAH HUJAN YANG HILANG DENGAN MODEL PERIODIK STOKASTIK (STUDI KASUS WILAYAH KABUPATEN PRINGSEWU) Oleh: Ikromi Fahmi Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menghitung dan memperkirakan data hujan yang hilang dengan membandingkan antara data dan hasil perhitungan. Data yang digunakan data curah hujan harian dengan panjang data tahun 1990-2000 di 3 stasiun yaitu stasiun Fajar Esuk, Panutan, dan Podorejo yang berada di Kabupaten Pringsewu. Perhitungan ini dilakukan dengan Metode Reciprocal dan Model Periodik Stokastik. Perhitungan Metode Reciprocal dengan menggunakan data curah hujan harian dan jarak antara 2 stasiun terdekat dengan stasiun objek penelitian. Pemodelan Periodik Stokastik menggunakan panjang data tahunan 512 hari. Dengan menggunakan frekuensi curah hujan yang didapat dan mengaplikasikan persamaan Fourier dan metode kuadrat terkecil dapat dihasilkan model periodik curah hujan harian. Komponen stokastik dihitung dengan menggunakan pendekatan autoregresif model. Model stokastik dipresentasikan dengan menggunakan autoregresif model orde tiga. Perbandingan data dengan hasil perhitungan dilakukan dengan menghitung koefisien korelasinya. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa hasil perhitungan curah hujan yang hilang yang diperoleh sangat signifikan mendekati curah hujan terukur. Dengan nilai koefisien korelasi series waktu harian metode sintetik adalah 0,9999, koefisien korelasi curah hujan rata – rata bulanan metode sintetik adalah 0,9999, dan koefisien korelasi curah hujan kumulatif bulanan metode sintetik adalah 0,9991. Kata kunci: curah hujan harian, metode reciprocal, komponen periodik stokastik ABTRACT THE ANALYSIS STUDY FOR FINDING OF THE MISSING RAINFALL RATE DATA USING THE STOCHASTIC PERIODIC METHOD (CASE STUDY IN KABUPATEN PRINGSEWU) By Ikromi Fahmi This study was aimed to calculate and predict the missing rainfall rate data by comparing the actual data and the calculation. This study used daily rainfall rate data from 1990 to 2000 at three stations, namely Fajar Esuk, Panutan and Podorejo in Kabupaten Pringsewu. Data analysis were conducted using reciprocal method and periodic stochastic model. The reciprocal method was calculated by using the daily rainfall rate data and the closest distance between two stations and the research object. Meanwhile, the periodic stochastic model was calculated by using the daily rainfall rate data for 512 days all year long. Then, the periodic model of the daily rainfall rate was established by using Fourier equation and least squares method. The stochastic components were calculated by autoregressive approaching model. The stochastic model was presented by third order of autoregressive model. The comparison between data and calculation was conducted by using correlation coefficient. Based on this study, it was concluded that calculation of missing rainfall rate was very significantly closer to the measured rainfall rate. The correlation coefficient of the synthetic method for daily time series, the monthly average rainfall, and the cumulative rainfall rate were 0,9999; 0,9999; and 0,9991 respectively. Key words:Daily rainfall rate, reciprocal method, periodic stochastic component

Tipe Karya Ilmiah: Tesis (Masters)
Subyek: A General Works = Karya Karya Umum
Teknologi > Mesin (General). Mesin Sipil (General)
Teknologi > Mesin (General). Mesin Sipil (General)
Mesin (General). Mesin Sipil (General)
Program Studi: Fakultas Teknik > Prodi Magister Teknik Sipil
Depositing User: 9902017 . Digilib
Date Deposited: 13 Jul 2015 06:54
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2015 06:54
URI: http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/11153

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