ANALISIS DEFISIT APBN DI INDONESIA (1985-2014)

AHMAD YUDI, 1111021007 (2015) ANALISIS DEFISIT APBN DI INDONESIA (1985-2014). Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Lampung.

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Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan transfer ke daerah terhadap defisit APBN di Indonesia. Variabel terikat dalam penelitian ini adalah defisit APBN di Indonesia dan variabel bebas yang digunakan adalah inflasi, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah dan defisit APBN tahun sebelumnya serta kebijakan transfer ke daerah sebagai focus penelitian. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series periode 1985-2014. Analisis yang dilakukan adalah analisis deskripsi kuantitatif pada analisis jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk analisis jangka pendek dan regresi linier berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) untuk jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang variabel inflasi, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah, defisit APBN tahun sebelumnya dan kebijakan transfer ke daerah secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap defisit APBN di Indonesia. Dari hasil penelitian ini juga kita dapat melihat pengaruh dari kebijakan yang diambil pemerintah yaitu kebijakan transfer ke daerah terhadap Defisit APBN di Indonesia. Kata kunci: Defisit APBN di Indonesia, kebijakan transfer ke daerah, inflasi, harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar rupiah defisit APBN tahun sebelumnya, Error Correction Model (ECM), Ordinary Least Square (OLS). ABSTRAK BAHASA INGGRIS This research aims to analyze influence judgment of transfer to region for deficit APBN in Indonesia. Dependent variables in this research is defiscit APBN in Indonesia and Independent variables are inflation, world oil price, exchange rates, before years deficit APBN in Indonesia, and judgment of transfer to region like the focus research. Data used in this research was time-series data in research periode of 1985-2014. Analysis method used in this research was descriptive quantitative analysis method for long term and short term. Tools analysed used in this research was Error Correction Model (ECM) for short term analysed and liniear regression with method Ordinary Least Square (OLS) for long term. Result of the research shows in long term and short term, defiscit APBN in Indonesia and Independent variables are inflation, world oil price, exchange rates, before years deficit APBN in Indonesia, and judgment of transfer to region maner to together is positive and significanly impact on deficit APBN in Indonesia. From the result of the research we can see influence from judgment make of government that is judgment of transfer to region for deficit APBN in Indonesia. Key words: deficit APBN in Indonesia, judgment of transfer to region, inflation, world oil price, exchange rates, before years deficit APBN in Indonesia, Error Correction Model (ECM), Ordinary Least Square (OLS), exchange rate and BI-Rates, Error Correction Model (ECM), Ordinary Least Square (OLS).

Tipe Karya Ilmiah: Skripsi
Subyek: H Ilmu Sosial = Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Program Studi: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Prodi Ekonomi Pembangunan
Depositing User: 1885615 . Digilib
Date Deposited: 30 Dec 2015 08:43
Last Modified: 30 Dec 2015 08:43
URI: http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/16445

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