PROYEKSI STOKASTIK PRODUKSI PADI DI INDONESIA

AGNESYA DWITIA , 1214131005 (2018) PROYEKSI STOKASTIK PRODUKSI PADI DI INDONESIA. FAKULTAS PERTANIAN, UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG.

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Abstrak

Padi merupakan komoditas pangan pokok masyarakat Indonesia. Namun demikian, Indonesia dapat mencapai swasembada beras pada 1984. Berdasarkan Rencana Strategis 2015-2019, Pemerintah menargetkan swasembada pada 2019 dengan jumlah produksi padi sebanyak 82,078 juta ton. Target tersebut sebaiknya diproyeksikan dengan cara stokastik berupa selang kemungkinan proyeksi pada tingkat peluang tertentu. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat perkembangan produksi dan memproyeksikan produksi padi menggunakan pendekatan stokastik. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series pada periode 1961-2015 yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS) dan Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Data diolah dengan menggunakan metode ekonometrika. Hasil proyeksi yang diperoleh pada 2019 yaitu 77,487 juta ton, diantara selang bawah dan selang atas sebesar 74,901 juta ton dan 80,071 juta ton, dengan laju pertumbuhan rata-rata pada periode 2018-2020 sebesar 0,6% pertahun. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa target produksi padi oleh pemerintah lebih tinggi dari hasil proyeksi stokastik. Kata kunci : Padi, produksi, proyeksi ABSTRACT Rice is the staple food for Indonesian people. However, Indonesia was in selfsufficiency for rice in 1984. Based on the Agricultural Ministry’s Strategic Planning for 2015 – 2019, the government will target the self-sufficiency in rice in 2019 by 82,078 million tons of the rice production. It is better that the production is stochastically forecasted in form of the interval of projection possibility with the certain probability level. Therefore, the objective of this research is to have the knowledge of the growth of rice production and to stochastically forecast it. The data used in this research is the production of rice in the period of 1961 – 2015 obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Indonesia. Then, the data are analyzed by using the econometric method. Hence, the result reveals that the rice production will be at 77,487 million tons in 2019 and its 95% confidence interval will be between 74,901 And 80,071 million tons. The growth rate of the rice production in 2018 – 2020 will be 0,6 percent per year. We can conclude that the government target of the rice production is higher than the result of stochastic forecasting. Key Words: Forecast, Paddy, Production

Tipe Karya Ilmiah: Skripsi
Subyek: > HB Economic Theory
> Budidaya tanaman
Program Studi: Fakultas Pertanian > Prodi Agribisnis
Depositing User: 23611042 . Digilib
Date Deposited: 27 Feb 2018 07:55
Last Modified: 27 Feb 2018 07:55
URI: http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/30629

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