ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER MELALUI BASE MONEY TARGETING FRAMEWORK (2000:01-2005:06) DAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK (2005:07-2013:12) TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN LAJU INFLASI DI INDONESIA

Dwi Elyatika, 1011021059 (2014) ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER MELALUI BASE MONEY TARGETING FRAMEWORK (2000:01-2005:06) DAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK (2005:07-2013:12) TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN LAJU INFLASI DI INDONESIA. Fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, Universitas Lampung.

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Abstrak

Abstrak Indonesia Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kestabilan harga merupakan tujuan yang ingin dicapai dalam pelaksanaan kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Tercapainya kestabilan harga akan berdampak pada pencapaian pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkesinambungan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis dampak kebijakan moneter pada periode penerapan Base Money Targeting Framework (2000:01-2005:06) dan Inflation Targeting Framework (2005:07-2013:12) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan laju inflasi di Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Variabel yang digunakan meliputi inflasi, produk domestik bruto, uang primer, BI rate, Kurs tengah IDR/USD dan suku bunga kredit investasi. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa: 1). Selama penerapan base money targeting framework uang primer berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun tidak signifikan terhadap laju inflasi di Indonesia. 2). Selama penerapan inflation targeting framework BI rate berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan laju inflasi di Indonesia. 3). Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan laju inflasi merespon positif adanya pergerakan dari variabel uang primer, kurs, dam suku bunga kredit investasi selama penerapan base money targeting framework. 4). Pertumbuhan ekonomi merespon positif adanya guncangan yang berasal dari variabel BI rate, kurs, dan suku bunga kredit investasi. Inflasi merespon secara negatif adanya guncangan yang berasal dari variabel BI rate, kurs, dan suku bunga kredit investasi selama penerapan inflation targeting framework. 5). Dampak kebijakan moneter selama penerapan base money targeting terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagian besar dijelaskan oleh variabel PDB dengan persentase sebesar 40%, variabel suku bunga kredit investasi 34,8%, kurs 16,6%, dan uang primer 8,4%. Selama penerapan base money targeting terhadap laju inflasi sebagian besar dijelaskan oleh variabel inflasi sebesar 71,3%, kurs 23,1%, suku bunga kredit investasi 4,9%, dan uang primer 0,57%. 6). Dampak kebijakan moneter selama penerapan inflation targeting framework terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagian besar dijelaskan oleh variabel PDB dengan persentase sebesar 69,4%, BI rate 29,4%, kurs 0,60%, dan suku bunga kredit investasi 0,4%. Selama penerapan inflation targeting framework terhadap inflasi sebagian besar dijelaskan oleh variabel inflasi dengan persentase sebesar 72,7%, suku bunga kredit investasi 19,0%, BI rate sebesar 7,8%, dan kurs 0,4%. Kata kunci: Inflasi, PDB, uang primer, BI rate, kurs, suku bunga kredit investasi dan VECM JEL Klasifikasi: E51, E52, E41, E430, E420 Abstrak Inggris The growth of economy and stability of price are the aim which would like to be reached on conducting the monetary policy in Indonesia. Targeting price stability will have an impact on the reach of continuous economy growth. The purpose of research is to analyze an impact of monetary policy at the implementation of base money targeting framework (2000: 01-2005:06) and inflation targeting framework (2005: 07-2013:12) on the growth of economy and the rate of inflation in Indonesia. The method which used in the research was vector error correction (VECM). The variable implemented were inflation, gross domestic product, base money, BI rate, the ID/USD middle kurs and investment credit interest. The results of analysis were: 1). Along the implementation of base money targeting framework base money significantly had a positive influence to the growth of economy, however, hadn’t been significant on the rate of inflation in Indonesia. 2). Along the implementation of inflation targeting framework BI rate significantly influential negative to the growth of economy and the rate of inflation in Indonesia. 3). The growth of economy and the rate of inflation gave a positive response for movement of base money variable, kurs and investment credit interest along the implementation base money targeting framework. 4). The growth of economy gave a positive response about a shock on the rate of BI variable, kurs and investment credit interest. The inflation gave a negative response about a shock on the rate of BI variable, kurs and investment credit interest along the implementation of implementation of inflation targeting framework. 5). The impact of monetary policy along the implementation of base money targeting on economy growth mostly explained by PDB variable in the amount of 40%, 34.8 of investment credit interest, 16.6% of kurs and 8.4%base money. Along the implementation of base money targeting on the rate of inflation mostly explained by inflation variable in the amount of 71.3%, 23.1% of kurs, 4.9% of investment credit interest and 0.57% base money. 6). The impact of monetary policy along inflation targeting framework implementation on economy growth mostly explained by PDB variable in the amount of 69.4%, 29.4% of BI rate, 0.60% of kurs and 0.4% investment credit interest. Along the implementation of inflation targeting framework on inflation mostly explained by 72.7% inflation variable, 19.0% of investment credit interest, 7.8% BI rate and 0.4 of kurs. Key words: Inflation, PDB, Base money, BI rate, Kurs, Investment Credit Interest, and VECMJEL classification: E51, E52, E41, E430, E420

Tipe Karya Ilmiah: Skripsi
Subyek: A General Works = Karya Karya Umum
Program Studi: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Prodi Ekonomi Pembangunan
Depositing User: Farid Hambali Prihantoro, A.Md.
Date Deposited: 27 Oct 2014 02:42
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2014 02:42
URI: http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/4673

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