PERBANDINGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES SINGH DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN PADA PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH KERING PANEN (GKP)

AULIA DIAH, AFRISANTI (2024) PERBANDINGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES SINGH DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN PADA PERAMALAN HARGA GABAH KERING PANEN (GKP). FAKULTAS MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM, UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

In the realm of commodity markets, grain is an important point because a high transaction amount of paddy is usually in the form of grain, therefore, price stability and grain availability will directly affect rice production and affect food and agricultural decisions. This research purpose is to compare the Fuzzy Time Series Singh method with the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method for forecasting harvested dry grain price data in Indonesia for the period January 2019 to December 2023. The forecasting accuracy of the FTS Singh method was found to have a MAPE value of 1,791% and MAE of 89,332. Meanwhile, the FTS Markov Chain method has a MAPE value of 2,170158% and MAE of 108,5265, so it is concluded that the FTS Singh method is better in forecasting GKP price. Keywords: Fuzzy Time Series Singh, Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain, Harvested Dry Grain Dalam ranah perdagangan komoditas, gabah menjadi poin kunci karena transaksi padi dalam jumlah besar biasanya dilakukan dalam bentuk gabah, oleh karena itu stabilitas harga dan ketersediaan gabah akan secara langsung memengaruhi produksi beras dan berdampak pada kebijakan pangan dan pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingan metode Fuzzy Time Series Singh dengan metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain guna peramalan harga Gabah Kering Panen (GKP) di Indonesia periode Januari 2019 hingga Desember 2023. Perolehan akurasi peramalan metode FTS Singh diperoleh nilai MAPE sebesar 1,791% dan MAE sebesar 89,332, sedangkan dengan metode FTS Markov Chain diperoleh nilai MAPE sebesar 2,170158% dan MAE sebesar 108,5265. Dari hasil yang diperoleh disimpulkan bahwa metode FTS Singh lebih baik dalam peramalan data Harga Gabah Kering Panen (GKP). Kata Kunci: Fuzzy Time Series Singh, Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain, Harga Gabah Kering Panen (GKP)

Item Type:	Other
Subjects:	?? 500 ?? ?? 510 ??
Divisions:	Fakultas MIPA > Prodi Matematika
Depositing User:	. firlia
Date Deposited:	11 Feb 2025 06:24
Last Modified:	11 Feb 2025 06:24
URI:	http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/82954

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