DINAMIKA INFLASI PANGAN DI INDONESIA

Monica Gizelda Oktaria, . (2025) DINAMIKA INFLASI PANGAN DI INDONESIA. FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS, UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi inflasi pangan di Indonesia dengan menggunakan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah inflasi pangan, sedangkan variabel independennya meliputi Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) sektor pertanian, Indeks Harga Pangan dunia (HP), nilai tukar (NT), dan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) kelompok transportasi. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa PDB sektor pertanian, Indeks Harga Pangan dunia, dan IHK kelompok transportasi berpengaruh berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi pangan. Sementara itu, nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi pangan. Temuan ini diharapkan dapat menjadi bahan pertimbangan bagi pemerintah dalam merumuskan kebijakan pengendalian inflasi pangan melalui penguatan sektor pertanian dan pengendalian biaya transportasi. Kata Kunci: Inflasi Pangan, PDB Sektor Pertanian, Indeks Harga Pangan Dunia, Nilai Tukar, IHK Transportasi, ARDL This study aims to analyze the factors influencing food inflation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The dependent variable in this study is food inflation, while the independent variables include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the agricultural sector, the World Food Price Index (HP), the exchange rate (NT), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the transportation group. The estimation results show that the GDP of the agricultural sector, the World Food Price Index, and the CPI for the transportation group have a significant influence on food inflation. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not have a significant effect on food inflation. These findings are expected to serve as a consideration for the government in formulating policies to control food inflation through strengthening the agricultural sector and managing transportation costs. Keywords: Food Inflation, Agricultural GDP, World Food Price Index, Exchange Rate, Transportation CPI, ARDL

Item Type:	Other
Subjects:	?? 330 ??
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Prodi Ekonomi Pembangunan
Depositing User:	UPT . Ery Elyasari
Date Deposited:	14 Jan 2026 04:49
Last Modified:	14 Jan 2026 04:49
URI:	http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/94764

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