Muhammad Retdhito , Nozaputra (2026) ANALISIS DAYA SAING DAN PROSPEK EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL. FAKULTAS PERTANIAN, UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG.
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Abstrak (Berisi Bastraknya saja, Judul dan Nama Tidak Boleh di Masukan)
This study aims to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil in the International market, examine the impact of downstream industrialization policies on export competitiveness, and assess the export prospects of Indonesian palm oil to developing countries in South Asia, namely India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The study employs a quantitative descriptive approach using secondary data on the volume and value of palm oil exports from 2015 to 2024, obtained from the International Trade Centre, Statistics Indonesia, and other relevant institutions. Export competitiveness is analyzed using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) methods, while the impact of downstream policies is examined through RCA sensitivity analysis. Export prospects are projected using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method. The results indicate that Indonesian palm oil has a strong competitive advantage in the international market, as reflected by RCA > 1 and a Rising Star position based on EPD analysis. Although downstream industrialization policies lead to a decline in crude palm oil export volume and value, they do not eliminate Indonesia’s comparative advantage. Furthermore, forecasting results show positive export prospects for Indonesian palm oil to India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh during the 2025 to 2029 period. Keywords: Downstream Industrialization, Export Competitiveness, Forecasting, International trade, Palm oil. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia di pasar internasional, mengkaji pengaruh kebijakan hilirisasi terhadap daya saing ekspor, serta menganalisis prospek ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia ke negara-negara berkembang di Asia Selatan: India, Pakistan, dan Bangladesh. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kuantitatif dengan data sekunder seperti data volume dan nilai ekspor minyak kelapa sawit periode 2015 sampai 2024, bersumber dari International Trade Centre, Badan Pusat Statistik, serta instansi terkait lainnya. Analisis daya saing ekspor menggunakan metode Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan Export Product Dynamic (EPD), sedangkan pengaruh kebijakan hilirisasi dianalisis melalui analisis sensitivitas RCA. Prospek ekspor dianalisis menggunakan metode peramalan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia memiliki daya saing yang sangat kuat di pasar internasional dengan nilai RCA > 1 dan posisi pasar berada pada kategori Rising Star. Kebijakan hilirisasi berdampak pada penurunan volume dan nilai ekspor CPO, namun tidak menghilangkan keunggulan komparatif Indonesia. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia ke India, Pakistan, dan Bangladesh memiliki prospek yang positif pada periode 2025 sampai 2029. Kata kunci: Daya Saing, Ekspor, Hilirisasi, Minyak Kelapa Sawit, Peramalan.
| Jenis Karya Akhir: | Skripsi |
|---|---|
| Subyek: | 600 Teknologi (ilmu terapan) > 630 Pertanian dan teknologi yang berkaitan |
| Program Studi: | FAKULTAS PERTANIAN (FP) & PASCASERJANA > Prodi S1 Agribisnis |
| Pengguna Deposit: | 2602813609 Digilib |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Feb 2026 07:03 |
| Terakhir diubah: | 20 Feb 2026 07:03 |
| URI: | http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/96815 |
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