?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PEMODELAN+TIME+SERIES+DAN+PERAMALAN%0D%0AMENGGUNAKAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE%0D%0AMOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+DAN+RANDOM+WALK&rft.creator=Faiga+Kharimah%2C+1117031022&rft.subject=QA+Mathematics&rft.description=ABSTRACT%0D%0A%0D%0AAutoregressive+integrated+moving+average+(ARIMA)+is+a+combination+of%0D%0AAutoregressive+(AR)+model+and+Moving+Average+(MA)+model.+The+ARIMA%0D%0Amodel+has+orde+(0%2C1%2C0)+is+called+RandomWalk+model.+The+ARIMA+model+using%0D%0Apast+and+present+value+to+produce+short-term+forecasting.+The+purpose+of+this%0D%0Aresearch+is+to+determine+the+best+ARIMA+model+for+forecasting+the+Consumer%0D%0APrice+Index+(CPI)+and+health+comodities+price+index+Bandar+Lampung+city+in+the%0D%0Aperiod+January+to+June+2014.+The+ARIMA+model+has+assumption+that+the+series%0D%0Adata+are+stationary.+The+CPI+and+health+comodities+price+index+of+Bandar%0D%0ALampung+is+not+stationary%2C+then+we+apllied+differencing+to+make+the+data%0D%0Astationary.+To+find+the+best+model+ARIMA%2C+first+we+check+the+stationary+data+by%0D%0Ausing+time+series+plot%2C+Autocorrelation+Function+(ACF)%2C+and+unitroot+test.+Then+the%0D%0Atime+series+model+was+found+by+using+ACF+and+Partial+Autocorrelations+Function%0D%0A(PACF).+The+best+model+was+found+by+using+criteria+Mean+Square+Error+(MSE)%2C%0D%0AAkaike%E2%80%99s+Information+Criterion+(AIC)+and+Bayesian+Information+Criterion+(BIC).%0D%0AThe+best+model+is+ARIMA+(1%2C1%2C0)+for+CPI+and+ARIMA+(0%2C1%2C0)+for+health%0D%0Acomodities+price+index.%0D%0AKey+Word+%3A+time+series%2C+forecasting%2C+CPI%2C+ARIMA&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2015-05-04&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F2%2FCOVER%2520DALAM.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F3%2FLEMBAR%2520PERSETUJUAN.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F4%2FLEMBAR%2520PENGESAHAN.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F6%2FLEMBAR%2520PERNYATAAN.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F5%2FRIWAYAT%2520HIDUP.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F7%2FPERSEMBAHAN.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F8%2FMOTO.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F10%2FSANWACANA.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F9%2FDAFTAR%2520ISI.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F11%2FDAFTAR%2520TABEL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F12%2FDAFTAR%2520GAMBAR.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F13%2FBAB%2520I.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F18%2FBAB%2520II.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F15%2FBAB%2520III.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F17%2FBAB%2520IV.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F16%2FBAB%2520V.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F14%2FDAFTAR%2520PUSTAKA.pdf&rft.identifier=++Faiga+Kharimah%2C+1117031022++(2015)+PEMODELAN+TIME+SERIES+DAN+PERAMALAN+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE+MOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+DAN+RANDOM+WALK.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F10421%2F