?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=ANALISIS+POLA+PERILAKU+INFLASI+IHK%0D%0ASEBELUM+DAN+SETELAH+HARI+RAYA+IDUL+FITRI%0D%0A(PENDEKATAN+ARIMA)&rft.creator=Puspa+Ayu%2C+(1211021091)&rft.subject=HC+Economic+History+and+Conditions&rft.description=Inflasi+merupakan+kecenderungan+meningkatnya+tingkat+harga+secara+umum+dan%0D%0Aterjadi+secara+terus-menerus.Berdasarkan+penelitian+Bank+Indonesia+(2014)+dan%0D%0AArini+(2012)+faktor+musiman+merupakan+salah+satu+faktor+terjadinya+peningkatan%0D%0Ainflasi%2C+salah+satunya+adalah+Hari+Raya+Idul+Fitri.+Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah%0D%0Auntuk+mengetahui+besar+pengaruh+hari+raya+Idul+Fitri+terhadap+tingkat+inflasi%2C+pola%0D%0Aperilaku+inflasi+dan+peramalan+IHK%2C+sehingga+instansi+terkait+dapat+melakukan%0D%0Akebijakan+agar+inflasi+musiman+dapat+dikendalikan.+Pengujian+hipotesis+dilakukan%0D%0Adengan+menggunakan+metode+Indeks+musiman+untuk+melihat+besar+pengaruh+dan%0D%0Apola+perilaku+inflasi+sedangkan+untuk+peramalan+menggunakan+pendekatan%0D%0AARIMA+dan+SARIMA+serta+untuk+Seasonal+Adjustment+dilakukan+dengan+metode%0D%0Adekomposisi+X-13+ARIMA.%0D%0AHasil+penelitian+menunjukan+bahwa+adanya+pengaruh+hari+raya+idul+fitri+terhadap%0D%0Ainflasi+yaitu+sebesar+0%2C+52%25+dan+terdapat+pola+perilaku+inflasi+dimana%2C+inflasi%0D%0Amengalami+pergerakan+kenaikan+ketika+satu+bulan+sebelum+hari+raya+idul+fitri+(h-%0D%0A1)+dan+menurun+ketika+satu+bulan+setelah+hari+raya+idul+fitri+(h%2B1).+Selain+itu+untuk%0D%0Aperamalan%2C+dengan+menggunakan+seasonal+adjustment+peramalan+menjadi+lebih%0D%0Aakurat+dikarenakan+menghasilkan+peramalan+dengan+residual+yang+cenderung%0D%0Alebih+kecil+dibandingkan+tanpa+dilakukan+proses+seasonal+adjustment.%0D%0AKata+kunci+%3A+Inflasi+(IHK)%2C+Indeks+Harga+Konsumen%2C+Hari+Raya+Idul+Fitri%2C%0D%0AARIMA%2C+SARIMA%2C+Seasonal+adjusment%2C+Dekomposisi+X-13%2C%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0Aabstrak+bahasa+inggris%0D%0A%0D%0AInflation+is+an+increasing+trend+of+price+levels+in+general+and+occurs+continuously.%0D%0ABased+on+the+research+of+Bank+Indonesia+(2014)+and+Arini+(2012)+seasonal+factor%0D%0Ais+one+factor+in+the+increase+in+inflation%2C+one+of+which+is+the+Eid.+The+purpose+of%0D%0Athis+study+was+to+determine+the+influence+of+Eid+on+the+inflation+rate%2C+behavior%0D%0Apatterns+and+forecasting+CPI+inflation%2C+so+that+the+relevant+agencies+can+carry+out%0D%0Apolicies+so+that+inflation+can+be+controlled+seasonal.+Hypothesis+testing+is+done+by%0D%0Ausing+the+seasonal+index+to+see+the+great+influence+and+behavior+patterns+of%0D%0Ainflation+and+for+forecasting+we+used+SARIMA+and+ARIMA+approach+and+then+to%0D%0ASeasonal+Adjustment+as+well+as+to+do+with+the+method+of+decomposition+X-13%0D%0AARIMA.%0D%0AThe+results+showed+that+the+influence+of+Eid+on+inflation+that%E2%80%99s+equal+to+0%2C+52%25%0D%0Aand+there+is+a+pattern+of+behavior+of+inflation+which%2C+inflationary+experience%0D%0Amovement+rise+when+a+month+before+Eid+(h-1)+and+decreases+when+a+month+after%0D%0Athe+feast+eid+(h%2B1).+In+addition+to+forecasting+using+seasonal+adjustment+becomes%0D%0Amore+accurate+forecasting+yield+forecasting+due+to+the+relatively+small+residual%0D%0Adone+without+seasonal+adjustment+process.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+Inflation+(CPI)%2C+the+Consumer+Price+Index%2C+Eid%2C+ARIMA%2C+SARIMA%2C%0D%0ASeasonal+Adjustment%2C+decomposition+X-13.&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+EKONOMI+DAN+BISNIS&rft.date=2016-04-11&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F21838%2F1%2FABSTRAK%2520%2528ABSTRACT%2529.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F21838%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F21838%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++Puspa+Ayu%2C+(1211021091)++(2016)+ANALISIS+POLA+PERILAKU+INFLASI+IHK+SEBELUM+DAN+SETELAH+HARI+RAYA+IDUL+FITRI+(PENDEKATAN+ARIMA).++FAKULTAS+EKONOMI+DAN+BISNIS%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F21838%2F