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<http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/23277> <http://purl.org/dc/terms/title> "ANALISIS KESEIMBANGAN PRIMER DI INDONESIA\r\nPERIODE 1977-2014"^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
<http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/23277> <http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/abstract> "Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui kondisi keseimbangan\r\nprimer di Indonesia dan menganalisis hubungan pembayaran bunga dan cicilan\r\nutang pemerintah, inflasi, harga minyak dunia dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB)\r\nterhadap keseimbangan primer di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data\r\nsekunder time series yang diperoleh dari Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia\r\n(SEKI) yang diterbitkan Bank Indonesia, World Bank, Badan Pusat Statistik\r\n(BPS) dan Departemen Energi Amerika Serikat (U.S. Energi Information\r\nAdministration), dengan rentang waktu tahun 1977-2014 . Penelitian ini\r\nmenggunakan pendekatan pengukuran rasio likuiditas untuk mengukur\r\nkeseimbangan primer dan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk\r\nestimasi hubungan pembayaran bunga dan cicilan utang pemerintah, inflasi, harga\r\nminyak dunia dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) terhadap keseimbangan primer.\r\nBerdasarkan hasil perhitungan rasio likuiditas menunjukkan bahwa bahwa\r\nkeseimbangan primer telah mampu mencukupi ketahanan anggaran Indonesia, hal\r\ntersebut berkaitan dengan tren rasio yang masih berkisar 0-1% sehingga dapat\r\ndisimpulkan keberlanjutan keseimbangan primer dalam keadaan stabil namun\r\nmasih dalam kecenderungan yang menurun. Selain itu, pembayaran bunga dan\r\ncicilan utang pemerintah berpengaruh terhadap keseimbangan primer secara tidak\r\nkonstan (non-linear). Hubungan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa pembayaran bunga\r\ndan cicilan utang secara negatif dan kemudian meningkat namun dengan\r\npercepatan yang semakin menurun terhadap keseimbangan primer. Disamping itu,\r\nnilai tukar, harga minyak dunia, dan Produk Domestik Bruto berpengaruh\r\nsignifikan secara teori terhadap keseimbangan primer namun, inflasi tidak\r\nsignifikan secara teori maupun statistik terhadap keseimbangan primer.\r\nKata Kunci: Keseimbangan primer, rasio likuiditas keseimbangan primer,\r\npembayaran bunga dan cicilan utang pemerintah, kointegrasi, Error Corection\r\nModel (ECM).\r\n\r\n\r\nABSTRAK INGGRIS\r\n\r\nThe main purpose of this research was to know the condition of primary balance\r\nin Indonesia and to analyze the effect of interest payment and repayment of\r\ngoverment debt, inflation, axchange rate, price of word oil and Gross Domestic\r\nProduct (GDP) on the primary balance in Indonesia. The data used are covering\r\nthe period 1977-2014 sourced from Indonesian Financial Statistic issued by Bank\r\nIndonesia. Central Goverment Debt Issued by Directorate General of Debt\r\nManagement, Ministry of finance, World Bank, Statistic Indonesia and U.S.\r\nEnergi Informtion Administration. This research used liquidity ratio measurement\r\napproach to measure the primary balance and Error Correction Model (ECM)\r\napproach to estimate the effect of interest payment and repayment of goverment\r\ndebt, inflation, axchange rate, price of word oil and Gross Domestic Product\r\n(GDP) on the primary balance in Indonesia. Based on the result of liquidity ratio\r\nmeasurement, it shows that primary balance has been fullfilled to Indonesian\r\nbudget. It relates with ration trend about 0-1%, so it can the be concluded that the\r\ncontinuance of primary balance is in stable condition, but it trend to decrease.\r\nBesides, interest payment and repayment of goverment debt un-constantly\r\ninfluence toward primary balance. That relationship shows the interest have\r\npayment and installment payable in negative way and increase, while the\r\naccelaration is more decrease toward the primary balance. Then, exchange rate,\r\nthe price of word oil, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) teorifically have\r\nsignificant influence toward primary balance, the other than inflation, teorifically\r\nand statistically do not have significant influence toward primary balance.\r\nKeywords: primary balance, the liquidity ratio of the primary balance, interest\r\npayments and repayments of government debt, cointegration, error correction\r\nmodel (ECM)."^^<http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string> .
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