?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=METODE+PEMULUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT-WINTERS+UNTUK%0D%0APERAMALAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU+MUSIMAN&rft.creator=+DEBI+ANGGITA+SASTI%2C++1317031021&rft.subject=Q+Science+(General)&rft.subject=QA+Mathematics&rft.description=Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+mengetahui+model-model+peramalan+dan%0D%0Amenentukan+model+terbaik+untuk+peramalan+data+jumlah+kedatangan+wisatawan%0D%0Amancanegara+di+Bandara+Ngurah+Rai+menggunakan+metode+pemulusan%0D%0Aeksponensial+Holt-Winters+berdasarkan+nilai+MAPE+dan+MAD+yang+terkecil.%0D%0AHasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+bahwa+peramalan+jumlah+kedatangan+wisatawan%0D%0Amancanegara+melalui+Bandara+Ngurah+Rai+menggunakan+metode+pemulusan%0D%0Aeksponensial+Holt-Winters+model+aditif+lebih+baik+dibandingkan+dengan+model%0D%0Amultiplikatif.%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+Holt-Winters%2C+Aditif%2C+Multiplikatif.%0D%0A%0D%0AABSTRACT%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+aim+of+this+study+is+to+determine+the+forecasting+models+and+the+best+model%0D%0Afor+the+number+of+foreign+tourist+arrivals+in+Ngurah+Rai+airport+using+Holt-Winter%0D%0Aexponential+smoothing+method+based+on+the+value+of+MAPE+and+MAD.%0D%0AThe+results+showed+that+the+number+of+foreign+tourist+arrivals+in+Ngurah+Rai%0D%0AAirport+using+Holt-Winters+additive+model+of+exponential+smoothing+method+is%0D%0Amore+appropriate+than+multiplicative+model.%0D%0AKey+Words%3A+Holt-winters%2C+Additive%2C+Multiplicative&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2017-02-13&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F25835%2F1%2FABSTRACT%2520%2528ABSTRAK%2529.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F25835%2F9%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F25835%2F10%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=+++DEBI+ANGGITA+SASTI%2C+1317031021++(2017)+METODE+PEMULUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT-WINTERS+UNTUK+PERAMALAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU+MUSIMAN.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F25835%2F