?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PEMBANDINGAN+METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+%0D%0AHOLT-WINTERS+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+ADITIF+DAN+%0D%0AMULTIPLIKATIF+PADA+PERAMALAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU%0D%0AMUSIMAN+&rft.creator=Fahmi+Arifta+Chairul+Nisa%2C+1317031032&rft.subject=Q+Science+(General)&rft.subject=QA+Mathematics&rft.description=ABSTRACT+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+aim+of+this+study+is+to+determine+the+forecasting+model+and+the+best+model+for+the+number+of+Sumatera+Train+passenger+using+Holt-Winters+exponential+smoothing+of+additive+and+multiplicative+model+and+compare+with+both+models+forecasting+based+on+the+smallest+value+of+MAPE%2C+MAD+and+MSD+.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+results+showed+that+the+number+of+Sumatera+Train+passenger+using+Holt-+Winters+additive+model++of+exponential+smoothing+method+is+more+appropriate+than+multiplicative+model.%0D%0A%0D%0AKey+words%3A+Method+of+Forecasting%2C+Seasonal+Time+Series%2C+Holt-Winters%0D%0AEksponential+Smoothing+Method%2C+Additive%2C+Multiplicative%2C+MAPE%2C+MAD%2C+MSD.%0D%0A+%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AABSTRAK%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0ATujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+mengetahui+model+peramalan+dan+menentukan+model+terbaik+untuk+peramalan+data+jumlah+penumpang+Kereta+Api+Pulau+Sumatera+menggunakan+metode+penghalusan+eksponensial+Holt-Winters+model+aditif+dan+multiplikatif+serta+mengetahui+perbandingan+peramalan+dengan+kedua+model+tersebut+berdasarkan+nilai+MAPE%2C+MAD%2C+dan+MSD+terkecil.%0D%0A%0D%0AHasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+bahwa+peramalan+jumlah+penumpang+Kereta+Api+Pulau+Sumatera+menggunakan+metode+penghalusan+eksponensial+Holt-Winters+model+aditif+lebih+baik+dibandingkan+dengan+model+multiplikatif.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata+kunci+%3A+Metode+Peramalan%2C+Deret+Waktu+Musiman%2C+Metode+Penghalusan%0D%0AEksponensial+Holt-Winters%2C+Aditif%2C+Multiplikatif%2C+MAPE%2C+MAD%2C+MSD.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2017-07-28&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F27794%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F27794%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F27794%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++Fahmi+Arifta+Chairul+Nisa%2C+1317031032++(2017)+PEMBANDINGAN+METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT-WINTERS+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+ADITIF+DAN+MULTIPLIKATIF+PADA+PERAMALAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU+MUSIMAN.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG+.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F27794%2F