?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=METODE+PERAMALAN+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+VARIASI%0D%0AKALENDER&rft.creator=KARINDHA+FEKA+AYU+%2C+1317031045&rft.subject=QA+Mathematics&rft.description=Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+mendapatkan+model+terbaik+untuk%0D%0Ameramalkan+jumlah+inflasi+di+Indonesia.+Model+yang+digunakan+dalam+penelitian%0D%0Aini+adalah+model+variasi+kalender.+Model+variasi+kalender+merupakan+teknik%0D%0Apemodelan+yang+mengkombinasikan+model+ARIMA+dan+model+regresi+Dummy.%0D%0AVariasi+kalender+merupakan+pola+berulang+dengan+panjang+periode+yang%0D%0Abervariasi+akibat+pengaruh+penanggalan+kalender+yang+berbeda-beda+setiap%0D%0Atahunnya.+Model+terbaik+dipilih+berdasarkan+Schwarz+Bayesian+Criteria+(SBC).%0D%0ADari+hasil+analisa+didapat+model+terbaik+yaitu+ARIMA+(1%2C0%2C0)+yang+dapat%0D%0Adigunakan+untuk+meramalkan+jumlah+inflasi+di+Indonesia+pada+masa+yang+akan%0D%0Adatang.%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+ARIMA%2C+Regresi+Dummy%2C+model+variasi+kalender+%2C+Peramalan%0D%0A%0D%0AABSTRACT%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+aim+of+this+study+is+to+find+the+best+model+to+forecast+the+inflation+in%0D%0AIndonesia.+The+model+used+for+this+study+is+calendar+variation+model.+Calendar%0D%0Avariation+model+is+technique+that+combines+ARIMA+modeling+and+dummy%0D%0Aregression.+Calendar+variation+is+a+cylical+pattern+with+varying+periods+due+to%0D%0Adifferent+calendar+date+position+for+each+year.+The+best+model+choose+based+on+the%0D%0Acriteria+of+Schwarz+Bayesian+Criterion+(SBC).+From+the+analysis+the+best+model+is%0D%0AARIMA+(1%2C0%2C0)+is+the+best+model+to+forecast+the+number+of+inflation+in%0D%0AIndonesia+in+the+future.%0D%0AKeywords+%3A+ARIMA%2C+Dummy+regression%2C+Calendar+Variation+Model+%2C+Forecasting&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2017-09-20&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F28624%2F1%2FABSTRACT%2520%2528ABSTRAK%2529.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F28624%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F28624%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++KARINDHA+FEKA+AYU+%2C+1317031045++(2017)+METODE+PERAMALAN+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+VARIASI+KALENDER.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C++UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F28624%2F