?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PROYEKSI+STOKASTIK+PRODUKSI+PADI+DI+INDONESIA&rft.creator=+AGNESYA+DWITIA+%2C+1214131005&rft.subject=HB+Economic+Theory&rft.subject=Budidaya+tanaman&rft.description=Padi+merupakan+komoditas+pangan+pokok+masyarakat+Indonesia.+Namun%0D%0Ademikian%2C+Indonesia+dapat+mencapai+swasembada+beras+pada+1984.+Berdasarkan%0D%0ARencana+Strategis+2015-2019%2C+Pemerintah+menargetkan+swasembada+pada+2019%0D%0Adengan+jumlah+produksi+padi+sebanyak+82%2C078+juta+ton.+Target+tersebut+sebaiknya%0D%0Adiproyeksikan+dengan+cara+stokastik+berupa+selang+kemungkinan+proyeksi+pada%0D%0Atingkat+peluang+tertentu.+Oleh+sebab+itu%2C+penelitian+ini+bertujuan+untuk+melihat%0D%0Aperkembangan+produksi+dan+memproyeksikan+produksi+padi+menggunakan%0D%0Apendekatan+stokastik.+Penelitian+ini+menggunakan+data+time+series+pada+periode%0D%0A1961-2015+yang+bersumber+dari+Badan+Pusat+Statistika+(BPS)+dan+Food+and%0D%0AAgriculture+Organization+(FAO).+Data+diolah+dengan+menggunakan+metode%0D%0Aekonometrika.+Hasil+proyeksi+yang+diperoleh+pada+2019+yaitu+77%2C487+juta+ton%2C%0D%0Adiantara+selang+bawah+dan+selang+atas+sebesar+74%2C901+juta+ton+dan+80%2C071+juta+ton%2C%0D%0Adengan+laju+pertumbuhan+rata-rata+pada+periode+2018-2020+sebesar+0%2C6%25%0D%0Apertahun.+Dapat+disimpulkan+bahwa+target+produksi+padi+oleh+pemerintah+lebih%0D%0Atinggi+dari+hasil+proyeksi+stokastik.%0D%0AKata+kunci+%3A+Padi%2C+produksi%2C+proyeksi%0D%0A%0D%0AABSTRACT%0D%0A%0D%0ARice+is+the+staple+food+for+Indonesian+people.+However%2C+Indonesia+was+in+selfsufficiency%0D%0Afor+rice+in+1984.+Based+on+the+Agricultural+Ministry%E2%80%99s+Strategic%0D%0APlanning+for+2015+%E2%80%93+2019%2C+the+government+will+target+the+self-sufficiency+in+rice+in%0D%0A2019+by+82%2C078+million+tons+of+the+rice+production.+It+is+better+that+the+production%0D%0Ais+stochastically+forecasted+in+form+of+the+interval+of+projection+possibility+with%0D%0Athe+certain+probability+level.+Therefore%2C+the+objective+of+this+research+is+to+have+the%0D%0Aknowledge+of+the+growth+of+rice+production+and+to+stochastically+forecast+it.+The%0D%0Adata+used+in+this+research+is+the+production+of+rice+in+the+period+of+1961+%E2%80%93+2015%0D%0Aobtained+from+the+Food+and+Agriculture+Organization+(FAO)%2C+and+the+Central%0D%0ABureau+of+Statistics+(CBS)%2C+Indonesia.+Then%2C+the+data+are+analyzed+by+using+the%0D%0Aeconometric+method.+Hence%2C+the+result+reveals+that+the+rice+production+will+be+at%0D%0A77%2C487+million+tons+in+2019+and+its+95%25+confidence+interval+will+be+between%0D%0A74%2C901+And+80%2C071+million+tons.+The+growth+rate+of+the+rice+production+in+2018+%E2%80%93%0D%0A2020+will+be+0%2C6+percent+per+year.+We+can+conclude+that+the+government+target+of%0D%0Athe+rice+production+is+higher+than+the+result+of+stochastic+forecasting.%0D%0AKey+Words%3A+Forecast%2C+Paddy%2C+Production&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+PERTANIAN&rft.date=2018-01-02&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F30629%2F1%2FABSTRACT%2520%2528ABSTRAK%2529.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F30629%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F30629%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=+++AGNESYA+DWITIA+%2C+1214131005++(2018)+PROYEKSI+STOKASTIK+PRODUKSI+PADI+DI+INDONESIA.++FAKULTAS+PERTANIAN%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F30629%2F