?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=ANALISIS+DATA+PADA+KASUS+POSITIF+COVID-19+DI+PROVINSI%0D%0ALAMPUNG+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE%0D%0AINTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+DAN+METODE%0D%0APEMULUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+GANDA+HOLT&rft.creator=DINDHA+AGUSTINA%2C+1717031077&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Metode+ARIMA+merupakan+metode+peramalan+data+deret+waktu+yang+meliputi%0D%0Aproses+stasioner%2C+autokorelasi%2C+autokorelasi+parsial+dan+lain-lain%2C+sedangkan%0D%0Ametode+pemulusan+eksponensial+ganda+holt+adalah+salah+satu+metode+peramalan%0D%0Ayang+digunakan+pada+data+deret+waktu+yang+mengandung+pola+trend.+Tujuan+dari%0D%0Apenelitian+ini+adalah+menerapkan+metode+ARIMA+dan+metode+pemulusan%0D%0Aeksponensial+ganda+holt+pada+data+deret+waktu.+Pemilihan+model+yang+terbaik%0D%0Adalam+peramalan+adalah+model+yang+memiliki+nilai+MSE+(Mean+Square+Error)%0D%0Aterkecil.+Data+yang+dianalisis+merupakan+data+harian+pasien+positif+COVID-19+di%0D%0AProvinsi+Lampung+pada+periode+1+September+2020+hingga+30+Juni+2021.+Data%0D%0Adibagi+menjadi+dua+bagian%2C+yaitu+data+training+dan+data+testing.%0D%0A%0D%0AHasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+bahwa+berdasarkan+MSE%2C+pengujian+data+testing%0D%0Aharian+pasien+positif+COVID-19+di+Provinsi+Lampung+dengan+menggunakan%0D%0Ametode+ARIMA+memberikan+hasil+yang+lebih+baik+dibandingkan+dengan+metode%0D%0Apemulusan+eksponensial+ganda+Holt.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata+kunci+%3A+Peramalan%2C+Trend%2C+Data+Training%2C+Data+Testing%2C+Metode+ARIMA%2C%0D%0AMetode+Pemulusan+Eksponensial+Ganda+Holt.%0D%0AARIMA+method+is+a+time+series+data+forecasting+method+which+includes%0D%0Astationary+processes%2C+autocorrelation%2C+partial+autocorrelation+and+others%2C+while+the%0D%0AHolt+double+exponential+smoothing+method+is+one+of+the+forecasting+methods+used%0D%0Aon+time+series+data+containing+trend+patterns.+The+purpose+of+this+study+is+to+apply%0D%0Athe+ARIMA+method+and+the+Holt+double+exponential+smoothing+method+on+time%0D%0Aseries+data.+The+best+model+selection+in+forecasting+is+the+model+that+has+the%0D%0Asmallest+MSE+(Mean+Square+Error)+value.+The+data+analyzed+is+data+on+the%0D%0Anumber+of+positive+COVID-19+patients+in+Lampung+Province+in+the+period%0D%0ASeptember+1%2C+2020+to+June+30%2C+2021.+The+data+is+divided+into+two+parts%2C+namely%0D%0Atraining+data+and+testing+data.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+results+showed+that+based+on+MSE%2C+testing+the+data+testing+the+number+of%0D%0Apositive+COVID-19+patients+in+Lampung+Province+using+the+ARIMA+method+gave%0D%0Abetter+results+than+the+Holt+double+exponential+smoothing+method.%0D%0A%0D%0AKey+words+%3A+Forecasting%2C+Trend%2C+Training+Data%2C+Testing+Data%2C+ARIMA+Method%2C%0D%0ADouble+Exponential+Smoothing.&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2021&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60288%2F1%2F1.%2520ABSTRAK-ABSTRACT%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_2.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60288%2F2%2F2.%2520SKRIPSI%2520FULL%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_5.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60288%2F3%2F3.%2520SKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_5.pdf&rft.identifier=++DINDHA+AGUSTINA%2C+1717031077++(2021)+ANALISIS+DATA+PADA+KASUS+POSITIF+COVID-19+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+DAN+METODE+PEMULUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+GANDA+HOLT.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60288%2F