?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=IMPLEMENTASI+ADAPTIVE+NEURO-FUZZY+INFERENCE+SYSTEM%0D%0A(ANFIS)+DAN+ARIMA+UNTUK+PERAMALAN+TIME+SERIES&rft.creator=Desynuristqmh12%40gmail.com%2C+1717031045&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Analisis+deret+waktu+adalah+salah+satu+bahasan+dalam+ilmu+statistika+untuk%0D%0Amelakukan+peramalan.+ARIMA+adalah+suatu+metode+peramalan+yang+biasanya%0D%0Abaik+digunakan+untuk+melakukan+peramalan+jangka+pendek+namun+metode%0D%0Atersebut+memiliki+keterbatasan+dalam+memodelkan+data+deret+waktu+nonlinear.%0D%0ASalah+satu+model+yang+digunakan+untuk+peramalan+data+deret+waktu+nonlinear+dan%0D%0Atelah+dikembangkan+dengan+mengkombinasikan+kedua+teknik+disebut+sistem%0D%0Ahybird%2C+yaitu+Adaptive+Neuro+Fuzzy+Inference+System+(ANFIS)+suatu+gabungan%0D%0Aantara+konsep+Backpropagation+Neural+Network+dengan+konsep+logika+fuzzy.%0D%0APeramalan+analisis+deret+waktu+dengan+menggunakan+metode+ARIMA+dan+ANFIS%0D%0Adapat+dilakukan+untuk+melihat+kesejahteraan+masyarakat+khususnya+di+sektor%0D%0Apertanian+dengan+melihat+nilai+tukar+petani.%0D%0ATujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+yaitu+mengkaji+dan+menduga+metode+ARIMA+dan%0D%0AANFIS+pada+data+nilai+tukar+petani+provinsi+Lampung+dengan+menggunakan%0D%0Aaplikasi+R-Studio+dan+Matlab.+Selanjutnya%2C+mendapatkan+model+ANFIS+yang%0D%0Asesuai+dengan+model+ARIMA+untuk+peramalan+time+series+data+nilai+tukar+petani%0D%0A(NTP)+provinsi+Lampung.%0D%0AKriteria+pemilihan+model+terbaik+berdasarkan+pada+nilai+RMSE+dan+MAPE+pada%0D%0Adata+NTP.+Hasil+dari+analisis+menunjukkan+bahwa+metode+ANFIS+memberikan%0D%0Atingkat+keakuratan+yang+lebih+baik+untuk+meramalkan+nilai+tukar+petani+provinsi%0D%0ALampung+dibandingkan+dengan+metode+ARIMA.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+data+time+series%2C+nilai+tukar+petani%2C+ARIMA%2C+ANFIS%2C+MAPE%2C%0D%0ARMSE%2C+peramalan.+Time+series+analysis+is+one+of+the+topics+in+statistics+for+forecasting.+ARIMA+is+a%0D%0Aforecasting+method+that+is+usually+good+for+short-term+forecasting%2C+but+this+method%0D%0Ahas+limitations+in+modeling+nonlinear+time+series+data.+One+of+the+models+used+for%0D%0Aforecasting+nonlinear+time+series+data+and+has+been+developed+by+combining+the%0D%0Atwo+techniques+are+called+a+hybrid+system%2C+namely+the+Adaptive+Neuro-Fuzzy%0D%0AInference+System+(ANFIS)+which+combines+the+concept+of+Backpropagation%0D%0ANeural+Network+with+the+concept+of+fuzzy+logic.+Forecasting+time+series+analysis%0D%0Ausing+the+ARIMA+and+ANFIS+methods+can+be+done+to+see+the+welfare+of+the%0D%0Acommunity%2C+especially+in+the+agricultural+sector+by+looking+at+the+exchange+rate+of%0D%0Afarmers.%0D%0AThe+purpose+of+this+study+is+to+examine+and+predict+the+ARIMA+and+ANFIS%0D%0A%0D%0Amethods+on+the+exchange+rate+data+of+farmers+in+Lampung+province+using+the+R-%0D%0AStudio+and+Matlab+applications.+Next%2C+get+the+ANFIS+model+that+matches+the%0D%0A%0D%0AARIMA+model+for+forecasting+time+series+data+on+farmers'+exchange+rates+(NTP)%0D%0Ain+Lampung+province.%0D%0AThe+criteria+for+selecting+the+best+model+are+based+on+the+RMSE+and+MAPE%0D%0Avalues+in+the+NTP+data.+The+results+of+the+analysis+show+that+the+ANFIS+method%0D%0Aprovides+a+better+level+of+accuracy+for+forecasting+the+exchange+rate+of+farmers+in%0D%0ALampung+province+compared+to+the+ARIMA+method.%0D%0A%0D%0AKeywords%3A+time+series+data%2C+farmer's+exchange+rate%2C+ARIMA%2C+ANFIS%2C%0D%0AMAPE%2C+RMSE%2C+forecasting.&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATIMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2021&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60935%2F1%2F1.%2520ABSTRAK-ABSTRACT%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_10.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60935%2F2%2F2.%2520SKRIPSI%2520FULL%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_4.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60935%2F3%2F3.%2520SKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN%2520-%2520Rocket%2520Digital_14.pdf&rft.identifier=++Desynuristqmh12%40gmail.com%2C+1717031045++(2021)+IMPLEMENTASI+ADAPTIVE+NEURO-FUZZY+INFERENCE+SYSTEM+(ANFIS)+DAN+ARIMA+UNTUK+PERAMALAN+TIME+SERIES.++FAKULTAS+MATIMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F60935%2F