<> "The repository administrator has not yet configured an RDF license."^^ . <> . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC)"^^ . "Metode SARIMA merupakan pengembangan dari metode Box-Jenkins (ARIMA).\r\nModel SARIMA dapat mengatasi pola musiman dari suatu periode waktu. Model\r\nini memerlukan beberapa pendekatan seperti asumsi kestasioneran, pembedaan\r\n(differencing), dan transformasi data. Namun, pendekatan ini masih belum\r\nmampu mengurangi nilai kesalahan model, akibatnya akan mendapatkan hasil\r\nperamalan dengan error yang besar. Pada proses peramalan model FTS-MC\r\nterdapat perhitungan nilai penyesuaian yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi besarnya\r\npenyimpangan hasil peramalan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah\r\nmetode fuzzy time series Markov chain dapat memperbaiki hasil peramalan model\r\nSARIMA. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh model ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12\r\nsebagai model terbaik yang akan digunakan untuk peramalan bulan Januari 2015 –\r\nJuli 2016. Hasil peramalan bulan Juli 2016 akan digunakan sebagai proses\r\nperamalan FTS-MC. Nilai MAPE yang diperoleh dari kedua model sama-sama\r\ndibawah 10% yang berarti hasil peramalan sangat baik. Namun, nilai MAPE dari\r\nmetode FTS-MC lebih kecil dibandingkan model SARIMA. Hal ini menunjukkan\r\nbahwa metode FTS-MC dapat memperbaiki hasil peramalan model SARIMA.\r\n\r\nKata kunci: fuzzy time series, fuzzy time series markov chain, SARIMA\r\nThe SARIMA method is a development of the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method.\r\nThe SARIMA model can overcome the seasonal pattern at a period of time. This\r\nmodel requires several approaches such as stationarity assumption, differencing,\r\nand data transformation. However, this approach is still not able to reduce the\r\nerror value of the model, as a result it will get forecasting results with errors large.\r\nIn the process of forecasting the FTS-MC model there is a calculation of the\r\nadjustment value which aims to reduce the magnitude of the deviation of the\r\nforecasting results. This study aims to determine whether the method fuzzy time\r\nseries Markov chain can improve the forecasting results of the SARIMA model.\r\nBased on the research results, ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model is the best model to\r\nbe used for forecasting January 2015 – July 2016. The forecasting results for July\r\n2016 will be used as the FTS-MC forecasting process. The MAPE values\r\nobtained from both models are both below 10%, which means the forecasting\r\nresults are very good. However, the MAPE value of the FTS-MC method is\r\nsmaller than the SARIMA model. This shows that the FTS-MC method can\r\nimprove the forecasting results of the SARIMA model.\r\n\r\nKeywords: fuzzy time series, fuzzy time series markov chain, SARIMA"^^ . "2021" . . . . . "FAKULTAS MATEMATIKA ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM"^^ . . . . . . . "1717031064"^^ . "GINDA ATI SUWANDI"^^ . "1717031064 GINDA ATI SUWANDI"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (File PDF)"^^ . . . "ABSTRAK-ABSTRACT - GINDA.pdf"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (File PDF)"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (File PDF)"^^ . . . "SKRIPSI TANPA BAB PEMBAHASAN - GINDA.pdf"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "lightbox.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "preview.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "medium.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "small.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "lightbox.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "preview.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "medium.jpg"^^ . . . "MODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING\r\nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME\r\n\r\nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC) (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "small.jpg"^^ . . "HTML Summary of #61743 \n\nMODEL SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING \nAVERAGE (SARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN METODE FUZZY TIME \n \nSERIES MARKOV CHAIN (FTS-MC)\n\n" . "text/html" . . . "500 ilmu pengetahuan alam dan matematika" . .