?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=1817031043&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PENERAPAN+METODE+VECTOR+AUTOREGRESSIVE+EXOGENOUS%0D%0A(VARX)+UNTUK+MERAMALKAN+DEBIT+INFLOW+DAN+DEBIT%0D%0AOUTFLOW+HARIAN+BENDUNGAN+BATU+TEGI+TAHUN+2021-2022&rft.creator=INTANIA+MELATI+LIBNA%2C+1817031043&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Uneven+distribution+of+rainfall+often+occurs+in+Indonesia%2C+especially+in+the+rainy%0D%0Aseason+which+can+cause+flooding+and+the+dry+season+which+can+cause+drought.+The%0D%0Adistribution+of+rainfall+affects+the+availability+of+existing+water%2C+as+well+as+the+inflow%0D%0Aand+outflow+of+a+dam.+Therefore%2C+forecasting+inflow+and+outflow+is+considered%0D%0Aimportant+as+a+reference+for+water+availability%2C+especially+in+dams.+The+Vector%0D%0AAutoregressive+Exogenous+(VARX)+method+is+a+statistical+analysis+that+is+often%0D%0Aused+in+multivariate+time+series+data+and+can+be+used+to+determine+the+relationship%0D%0Abetween+endogenous+and+exogenous+variables.+In+this+study%2C+the+VARX+method%0D%0Awas+used+to+forecast+the+inflow+and+outflow+of+the+Batu+Tegi+Dam+for+the+next%0D%0Aperiod.+The+results+of+the+analysis+show+that+the+VARX+(6%2C1)+model+is+feasible+and%0D%0Asuitable+for+use.+The+use+of+the+VARX+(6%2C1)+model+with+endogenous+variables%0D%0Anamely+inflow+and+outflow+as+well+as+exogenous+variables+rainfall%2C+resulted+in+good%0D%0Aforecasting+accuracy+with+MAE+values+of+19.46+for+inflow+and+15.39+for+outflow.%0D%0AKey+words%3A+Batu+Tegi+Dam%2C+Debit+Inflow%2C+Debit+Outfow%2C+Vector+Autoregressive%0D%0AExogenous%2C+Forecasting%2C+MAE%0D%0ADistribusi+curah+hujan+yang+tidak+merata+sering+terjadi+di+Indonesia+terutama+pada%0D%0Amusim+hujan+sehingga+dapat+menyebabkan+banjir+dan+musim+kemarau+dapat%0D%0Amenyebabkan+kekeringan.+Penyebaran+curah+hujan+tersebut+mempengaruhi%0D%0Aketersediaan+air+yang+ada%2C+demikian+pula+dengan+pengaliran+masuk+dan+pengaliran%0D%0Akeluar+suatu+bendungan.+Oleh+karena+itu+peramalan+debit+inflow+dan+debit+outflow%0D%0Adirasa+penting+sebagai+acuan+ketersediaan+air+terutama+di+bendungan.+Metode%0D%0AVector+Autoregressive+Exogenous+(VARX)+adalah+salah+satu+analisis+statistika+yang%0D%0Asering+digunakan+pada+data+deret+waktu+multivariat+dan+dapat+digunakan+untuk%0D%0Amengetahui+hubungan+antara+variabel+endogen+dengan+eksogen.+Pada+penelitian%0D%0Atersebut+metode+VARX+digunakan+untuk+meramalkan+debit+inflow+dan+debit%0D%0Aoutflow+Bendungan+Batu+Tegi+periode+yang+akan+datang.+Hasil+analisis%0D%0Amenunjukkan+bahwa+model+VARX+(6%2C1)+layak+dan+cocok+digunakan.+Penggunaan%0D%0Amodel+VARX+(6%2C1)+dengan+variabel+endogen+yaitu+debit+inflow+dan+debit+outflow%0D%0Aserta+variabel+eksogen+curah+hujan%2C+menghasilkan+keakuratan+peramalan+yang+baik%0D%0Adengan+nilai+MAE+yaitu+19%2C46+untuk+debit+inflow+dan+15%2C39+untuk+debit+outflow.%0D%0AKata+Kunci%3A+Bendungan+Batu+Tegi%2C+Debit+Inflow%2C+Debit+Outfow%2C+Vector%0D%0AAutoregressive+Exogenous%2C+Peramalan%2C+MAE&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2022-06-14&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F63647%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F63647%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F63647%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++INTANIA+MELATI+LIBNA%2C+1817031043++(2022)+PENERAPAN+METODE+VECTOR+AUTOREGRESSIVE+EXOGENOUS+(VARX)+UNTUK+MERAMALKAN+DEBIT+INFLOW+DAN+DEBIT+OUTFLOW+HARIAN+BENDUNGAN+BATU+TEGI+TAHUN+2021-2022.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F63647%2F