?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=1617031076&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PENERAPAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+ENSEMBLE+DALAM+PERAMALAN%0D%0ALAJU+INFLASI+DI+INDONESIA+&rft.creator=NUURUL+QOLBIYATI%2C+1617031076&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.description=ARIMA+ensemble+is+a+method+of+combination+forecast+result+from+multiple+ARIMA+models.++Ensemble+method+used+to+combine+the+forecast+result+in+this+study+were+averaging+and+stacking.++The+data+used+in+this+study+is+the+monthly+inflation+of+Indonesian+from+January+2009+to+December+2021.++The+results+showed+that+for+forecasting+the+next+six+months+ensemble+averaging+method+produces+the+smaller+RMSE+values+and+obtained+models+Z_t%3D1%2F2+%E2%88%91_(i%3D1)%5E2%E2%96%92z_t%5E((i))++where+z_t%5E((1))+is+ARIMA+models+(2%2C1%2C1)+dan+z_t%5E((2))+ARIMA+models+(0%2C1%2C2).++Based+on+ARIMA+ensemble+averaging+model+the+monthly+inflation+forecasting+Indonesia+in+the+next+six+months+will+continue+to+increase.%0D%0AKata+Kunci%3A+ARIMA%2C+ARIMA+ensemble%2C+inflation%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AARIMA+ensemble+merupakan+metode+kombinasi+hasil+peramalan+dari+beberapa+model+ARIMA.++Metode+ensemble+yang+digunakan+untuk+menggabungkan+hasil+peramalan+dalam+penelitian+ini+adalah+averaging+dan+stacking.++Data+yang+digunakan+dalam+penelitian+ini+adalah+inflasi+bulanan+Indonesia+dari+bulan+Januari+2009+hingga+Desember+2021.++Hasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+menunjukkan+bahwa+peramalan+enam+bulan+mendatang+metode+ensemble+averaging+menghasilkan+nilai+RMSE+terkecil+dan+diperoleh+model+Z_t%3D1%2F2+%E2%88%91_(i%3D1)%5E2%E2%96%92z_t%5E((i))++dimana+z_t%5E((1))+model+ARIMA+(2%2C1%2C1)+dan+z_t%5E((2))+model+ARIMA+(0%2C1%2C2).++Berdasarkan+ARIMA+ensemble+averaging+model+perkiraan+inflasi+bulanan+Indonesia+enam+bulan+mendatang+mengalami+kenaikan+terus+menerus.%0D%0AKata+Kunci%3A+ARIMA%2C+ARIMA+ensemble%2C+inflasi%0D%0A%0D%0A&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2022-07-25&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F64527%2F1%2F1.%2520ABSTRACT.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F64527%2F2%2F2.%2520SKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F64527%2F3%2F3.%2520SKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++NUURUL+QOLBIYATI%2C+1617031076++(2022)+PENERAPAN+METODE+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(ARIMA)+ENSEMBLE+DALAM+PERAMALAN+LAJU+INFLASI+DI+INDONESIA.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F64527%2F