%A 1821021003 Mutiara Sari
%T PENGARUH PERANG DAGANG AS-CHINA TERHADAP
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI (STUDI KASUS NEGARA MITRA

DAGANG AS-CHINA TAHUN 2016-2019)
%X This study aims to analyze how the effect of US-China trade war on economic growth in 17
trading partner countries of the United States and China, and analyze the effects of export
performance, Foreign Direct Investment, and exchange rates on economic growth in 17
trading partner countries of the United States and China in the period before the US-China
trade war (2016-2017) and after the US-China trade war (2018-2019). The samples in this
study examined 17 trading partner countries of the United States and China, including Japan,
Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brazil, India, Russia,
Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Canada, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab
Emirates. The variables that used in this study are ecomonic growth, export performance,
Foreign Direct Investment, exchange rate, and dummy variable in the period before and after
the US-China trade war. The method in this study uses panel data regression method
with dummy variables in the period before and after the US-China trade war which is
processed by Microsoft Excel 2010 and E-Views 10 program.
The results of this analysis show that the US-China trade war dummy has an effect on
economic growth in 17 trading partner countries of the United States and China. Export
performance and FDI have positive and significant impact on economic growth in 17 trading
partner countries of the United States and China in the period before and after the US-China
trade war. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has no significant effect on economic growth in 17

trading partner countries of the United States and China in the period before and after the US-
China trade war.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Export Performance, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange
Rate, Trade War.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis bagaimana pengaruh perang dagang
AS-China terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 17 negara mitra dagang Amerika
Serikat dan China, dan menganalisis pengaruh kinerja ekspor, Foreign Direct
Investment, dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 17 negara mitra
dagang Amerika Serikat dan China pada masa sebelum perang dagang AS-China
(2016-2017) dan sesudah perang dagang AS-China (2018-2019). Sampel dalam
penelitian ini meneliti 17 negara mitra dagang Amerika Serikat dan China yaitu
negara Jepang, Hongkong, Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia,
Brasil, India, Rusia, Thailand, Singapura, Indonesia, Kanada, Filipina, Saudi
Arabia, dan Uni Emirat Arab. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah pertumbuhan
ekonomi, kinerja ekspor, Foreign Direct Investment, nilai tukar, dan variabel
dummy periode sebelum dan sesudah perang dagang AS-China. Metode dalam
penelitian ini menggunakan metode regresi data panel dengan variabel dummy
sebelum dan sesudah perang dagang AS-China yang diolah dengan Microsoft
Excel 2010 dan program E-Views 10.
Hasil analisis penelitian menunjukkan dummy perang dagang AS-China
berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 17 negara mitra dagang Amerika
Serikat dan China. Kinerja ekspor dan FDI berpengaruh positif dan signifikan
terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 17 negara mitra dagang Amerika Serikat dan
China pada masa sebelum dan sesudah perang dagang AS-China. Sedangkan nilai
tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 17 negara
mitra dagang Amerika Serikat dan China pada masa sebelum dan sesudah perang
dagang AS-China.

Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Kinerja Ekspor, Foreign Direct Invesment,
Nilai Tukar, Perang Dagang.
%D 2021
%I UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG
%L eprints67508