@misc{eprints71239,
           month = {April},
           title = {PEMODELAN DINAMIS DISTRIBUTED LAG DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN
METODE KOYCK DAN METODE ALMON},
          author = {Sitorus Dora Panny Nurcahaya},
         address = {UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG},
       publisher = {FAKULTAS MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM},
            year = {2023},
             url = {http://digilib.unila.ac.id/71239/},
        abstract = {
The distributed lag Model is a dynamic model due to the effect of a one-unit change
in the value of the distributed independent variable (X) over a period of time.
Distributed lag Model there are 2 types, namely: infinite lag model and finite lag
model. Infinite lag modeling using koyck method and finite lag modeling using
Almon method. This distributed lag Model is used to visualize the impact caused
by the independent variable on the dependent variable. This study aims to apply a
dynamic model of distributed lag by using the koyck transformation method and
Almon transformation method to assess the effect of the rupiah exchange rate on
the value of garment exports PT. Shinwon went abroad and determined the best
model in Dynamic Modeling of distributed lag using the koyck transformation
method and the Almon transformation method. The results showed that dynamic
modeling of distributed lag with Almon transformation method is better than koyck
transformation.
Keywords: Distributed lag model, Koyck method, Almon method, Indonesian
exchange rate, export.

Distributed lag model atau model lag terdistribusi termasuk model dinamis sebab
pengaruh perubahan satu unit dalam nilai variabel bebas (X) terdistribusi selama
periode waktu. Model lag terdistribusi ada 2 jenis, yaitu: model infinite lag dan
model finite lag. Pemodelan infinite lag memakai metode Koyck dan pemodelan
finite lag menggunakan metode Almon. Model lag terdistribusi digunakan untuk
memvisualkan dampak yang dilakukan oleh variabel bebas terhadap variabel tak
bebas. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengaplikasikan model dinamis distributed lag
melalui pemakaian metode transformasi Koyck dan metode transformasi Almon
untuk mengkaji pengaruh kurs rupiah Indonesia terhadap nilai ekspor garmen PT.
Shinwon ke mancanegara dan menentukan model terbaik dalam pemodelan dinamis
distributed lag dengan memakau metode transformasi Koyck dan metode
transformasi Almon. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemodelan dinamis
distributed lag dengan memakai metode transformasi Almon lebih baik disbanding
transformasi Koyck.
Kata Kunci: Model lag terdistribusi, Metode Koyck, Metode Almon, Kurs
Indonesia, Ekspor}
}