%A PERTIWI DEWI 
%T PEMODELAN PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN TEKNIK 
INTERPOLASI SPASIAL
(Studi Kasus: Kecamatan Sukarame Kota Bandarlampung)

%X 

Coronavirus disease 2019 atau Covid-19 muncul pertama kali tanggal 31 Desember 2019 di Wuhan Tiongkok. Covid-19 merupakan penyakit yang mudah menular dan cepat dalam laju pertumbuhan dan penyebarannya. Penderita Covid-19 akan mengalami gejala kesulitan bernafas (pneumonia) atau sesak nafas hingga akhirnya meninggal dunia. Gejala terinfeksi Covid-19 akan muncul pada hari ke 5 sampai 14 hari kedepanya, selama sudah terinfeksi penderita masih beraktifitas seperti biasa dan tanpa disadari mobilitas (aktifitas) penderita sudah menyebarkan penyakit Covid-19 ke lingkungan disekitarnya. Penyebaran penyakit Covid-19 berdasarkan unsur spasial tidak lepas pada jarak antara si penderita Covid-19 atau penyebar dengan yang terkena sebar sehingga peneliti ingin menggunakan teknologi interpolasi spasial untuk menentukan penyebaran penularan penyakit Covid-19 secara spasial dengan memperhitungkan pengaruh posisi dan jarak penderita dalam menyebarkan penyakit Covid-19. 
Analisis spasial yang dilakukan menggunakan data sebaran titik koordinat penderita Covid-19 tahun 2020 dan jarak jangkauan posisi penderita dalam menularkan penyakit Covid-19. Sebaran titik koordinat penderita dan aktifitas (jarak) penularan sebagai pusat persebaran digunakan untuk membuat simulasi  model supaya diketahui daerah yang berpontesi bahaya persebaran penularan Covid-19 secara spasial menggunakan teknik interpolasi dengan metode kriging. Dalam pembuatan pemodelan penyebaran penyakit Covid-19 peneliti menggunakan model geometrik 
Penggunaan teknik interpolasi spasial mengindentifikasi Kelurahan Sukarame, Sukarame Baru, Way Dadi dan Korpri Raya berpotensi dalam penularan penyakit Covid-19 di Kecamatan Sukarame. Simulasi model yang dilakukan memiliki tingkat akurasi sangat baikdihitung menggunakan MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error). Sebaran penyakit Covid-19 di Kecamatan Sukarame berpola Cluster(mengelompok). 

Kata Kunci: Covid-19, Interpolasi Spasial, Kriging, Model Geometrik, Kecamatan Sukarame



Coronavirus disease 2019 or Covid-19 first appeared on December 31 2019 in Wuhan China. Covid-19 is a disease that is easily transmitted and fast in its growth and spread. Patients with Covid-19 will experience symptoms of difficulty breathing (pneumonia) or shortness of breath until they finally die. Symptoms of being infected with Covid-19 will appear on the 5th to 14th day in the future, as long as they are infected the patient is still carrying out their usual activities and without realizing the mobility (activity) of the patient has spread Covid-19 disease to the surrounding environment. The spread of Covid-19 disease based on spatial elements cannot be separated from the distance between the sufferer of Covid-19 or the spreader and those who are exposed to it, so researchers want to use spatial interpolation technology to determine the spatial spread of transmission of Covid-19 disease by taking into account the influence of the position and distance of the sufferer in spreading it. Covid-19 disease.
Spatial analysis was carried out using data on the distribution of coordinate points of Covid-19 sufferers in 2020 and the range of the patient's position in transmitting Covid-19 disease. The distribution of coordinate points of sufferers and activity (distance) of transmission as distribution centers is used to create a model simulation so that areas with potential danger of the spread of Covid-19 transmission are known spatially using the interpolation technique with the kriging method. In making the modeling of the spread of the Covid-19 disease researchers used a geometric model.
The use of spatial interpolation techniques identified Sukarame, Sukarame Baru, Way Dadi and Korpri Raya sub-districts as having the potential for transmission of the Covid-19 disease in Sukarame District. The model simulation has a very good level of accuracy calculated using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The distribution of Covid-19 disease in Sukarame District has a cluster pattern.

Keywords: Covid-19, Spatial Interpolation, Kriging, Geometric Models, Sukarame District



%D 2023
%C UNIVERSITAS LAMPUNG
%R 1715013033
%I FAKULTAS TEKNIK
%L eprints71940