?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PENERAPAN+METODE+SINGULAR+SPECTRUM+ANALYSIS+(SSA)+UNTUK+MEMPREDIKSI+RATA-RATA+SUHU+UDARA+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG&rft.creator=ANOM+%2C+WISNU+SYAPUTRA&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Forecasting+is+the+science+of+predicting+something+that+will+happen+in+the+future%0D%0Aby+considering+existing+data+from+the+previous+time.+Forecasting+techniques+are%0D%0Awidely+applied+to+predict+various+kinds+of+cases%2C+one+of+which+is+air+temperature.%0D%0AThe+average+air+temperature+data+in+Lampung+Province+is+a+non-stationary+time%0D%0Aseries+data+that+has+a+seasonal+pattern.+Analysis+of+this+seasonal+data+pattern+was%0D%0Acarried+out+using+the+Singular+Spectrum+Analysis+(SSA)+method.+SSA+is+a+data%0D%0Aanalysis+method+that+is+able+to+decompose+data+from+time+to+time+into+a+simpler%0D%0Aform+so+that+it+is+good+at+obtaining+data+forecasts.+The+application+of+SSA+is+not%0D%0Abound+by+parametric+assumptions+such+as+stationarity%2C+so+it+is+quite+flexible+to+be%0D%0Aapplied+to+various+types+of+data.+The+purpose+of+this+study+is+to+identify+the%0D%0Acharacteristics+of+time+series+data+patterns+and+find+out+the+best+SSA+model+to%0D%0Apredict+the+average+air+temperature+for+the+next+several+periods.+Based+on+the%0D%0Aresults+of+the+study%2C+3+groups+of+data+patterns+with+different+periods+were+obtained%0D%0Aand+the+best+SSA+model+was+obtained+with+windows+length+(L)+of+42+and%0D%0Agrouping+effect+(r)+of+6+which+produced+the+highest+level+of+forecasting+accuracy%0D%0Awith+a+MAPE+value+of+1.19%25.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+forecasting%2C+singular+spectrum+analysis%2C+air+temperature%0D%0APeramalan+(forecasting)+adalah+ilmu+untuk+memprakirakan+seseuatu+yang+akan%0D%0Aterjadi+di+waktu+mendatang+dengan+mempertimbangkan+data-data+yang+ada+dari%0D%0Awaktu+sebelumnya.+Teknik+peramalan+banyak+diterapkan+untuk+meramalkan%0D%0Aberbagai+macam+kasus%2C+salah+satunya+yaitu+Suhu+Udara.+Data+Rata-rata+Suhu%0D%0AUdara+di+Provinsi+Lampung+merupakan+data+deret+waktu+tidak+stasioner+yang%0D%0Amemiliki+pola+musiman.+Analisis+pada+data+berpola+musiman+ini+dilakukan%0D%0Adengan+Metode+Singular+Spectrum+Analysis+(SSA).+SSA+merupakan+metode%0D%0Aanalisis+data+yang+mampu+menguraikan+data+deret+waktu+menjadi+bentuk+yang%0D%0Alebih+sederhana+sehingga+baik+dalam+memperoleh+data+ramalan.+Penerapan+SSA%0D%0Atidak+terikat+kepada+asumsi+parametrik+seperti+stasioneritas+sehingga+cukup%0D%0Afleksibel+diterapkan+pada+berbagai+jenis+data.+Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah%0D%0Amengidentifikasi+karakteristik+pola+data+deret+waktu+dan+mengetahui+Model+SSA%0D%0Aterbaik+untuk+memprediksi+rata-rata+suhu+udara+beberapa+periode+ke+depan.%0D%0ABerdasarkan+hasil+penelitian+diperoleh+3+kelompok+pola+data+dengan+periode+yang%0D%0Aberbeda+dan+didapatkan+model+SSA+terbaik+dengan+windows+length+(L)+yaitu+42%0D%0Adan+grouping+effect+(r)+yaitu+6+yang+menghasilkan+tingkat+akurasi+peramalan%0D%0Atertinggi+dengan+nilai+MAPE+sebesar+1%2C19+%25.%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+peramalan%2C+singular+spectrum+analysis%2C+suhu+udara&rft.publisher=+FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2023-05-31&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F72580%2F1%2F1.%2520ABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F72580%2F2%2F2.%2520SKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F72580%2F3%2F3.%2520SKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++ANOM+%2C+WISNU+SYAPUTRA++(2023)+PENERAPAN+METODE+SINGULAR+SPECTRUM+ANALYSIS+(SSA)+UNTUK+MEMPREDIKSI+RATA-RATA+SUHU+UDARA+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG.+++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C++UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F72580%2F