?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=1917031067&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=IMPLEMENTASI+FUZZY+TIME+SERIES+ORDE+TINGGI+MODEL+SINGH+PADA+NILAI+EKSPOR+MIGAS+DI+INDONESIA+DENGAN+VARIASI+HIMPUNAN+SEMESTA+PEMBICARAAN&rft.creator=MUHAMAD+%2C+DEVA+RANDRI&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=One+of+the+reasons+for+the+shortage+of+oil+and+gas+exports+in+Indonesia+is+inadequate+planning+and+development.+Short-+and+long-term+planning+can+be+used+as+a+policy+guide+or+action+to+avoid+insufficient+oil+and+gas+exports.+The+value+of+future+oil+and+gas+exports+must+predict+using+forecasting+techniques+with+high+accuracy%2C+one+of+which+is+the+high-order+fuzzy+time+series+Singh+model%2C+which+uses+a+simple+algorithm+and+has+a+linear+sequence+complexity.+The+advantage+of+this+method+is+that+it+can+produce+high+prediction+accuracy+because%2C+during+the+defuzzification+process%2C+it+can+minimize+the+complexity+of+calculating+fuzzy+relational+matrices.+This+research+examines+the+problem+of+predicting+the+value+of+oil+and+gas+exports+using+the+high-order+fuzzy+time+series+of+the+Singh+model+by+varying+the+set+of+universes+of+conversation.+Based+on+the+results+obtained%2C+the+smallest+MAPE+is+in+the+universe+of+discourse+1+%5B560.9%2C+1706.8%5D+with+order+7%2C+which+is+3.887%25%2C+so+the+set+of+universes+of+discourse+and+order+is+the+best+forecasting+model+compared+to+the+set+of+discourse+and+other+orders.++%0D%0A%0D%0AKeywords%3A+Singh+Fuzzy+Time+Series+High-Order+Model%2C+Value+of+Oil+and+Gas+Exports++%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A++Salah+satu+penyebab+atas+kekurangan+ekspor+migas+di+Indonesia+dapat+dikaitkan+dengan+perencanaan+dan+pembangunan+yang+tidak+memadai.+Perencanaan%2C+baik+jangka+pendek+maupun+jangka+panjang%2C+dapat+digunakan+sebagai+panduan+kebijakan+atau+tindakan+yang+harus+dilakukan+untuk+menghindari+ekspor+migas+yang+tidak+mencukupi.+Nilai+ekspor+migas+di+masa+mendatang+harus+diramalkan+dengan+menggunakan+teknik+peramalan+dengan+akurasi+tinggi%2C+salah+satunya++fuzzy+time+series+orde+tinggi+model+Singh+yang+menggunakan+algoritma+sederhana+dan+memiliki+kompleksitas+urutan+linier.+Keunggulan+Metode+ini+dapat+menghasilkan+akurasi+prediksi+yang+tinggi+karena+selama+proses+defuzzifikasi+dapat+meminimalkan+kompleksitas+perhitungan+matriks+relasional+fuzzy.+Pada+penelitian+ini+dikaji+masalah+prediksi+nilai+ekspor+migas+menggunakan+fuzzy+time+series+orde+tinggi+model+Singh+dengan+memvariasikan+himpunan+semesta+pembicaraannya.+Berdasarkan+hasil+yang+diperoleh%2C+MAPE+terkecil+ada+pada+himpunan+semesta+pembicaraan+1+%5B560.9%2C+1706.8%5D+dengan+orde+7+yakni+sebesar+3%2C887%25.+Sehingga+himpunan+semesta+pembicaraan+dan+orde+tersebut+merupakan+model+peramalan+terbaik+dibandingkan+himpunan+semesta+pembicaraan+dan+orde+lainnya.+%0D%0A%0D%0A+Kata+Kunci%3A+Fuzzy+Time+Series+Orde+Tinggi+Model+Singh%2C+Nilai+Ekspor+Migas+++&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2023-06-21&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73491%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73491%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73491%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++MUHAMAD+%2C+DEVA+RANDRI++(2023)+IMPLEMENTASI+FUZZY+TIME+SERIES+ORDE+TINGGI+MODEL+SINGH+PADA+NILAI+EKSPOR+MIGAS+DI+INDONESIA+DENGAN+VARIASI+HIMPUNAN+SEMESTA+PEMBICARAAN.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73491%2F