?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=1917031069&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PENERAPAN+MODEL+VECTOR+ERROR+CORRECTION+MODEL+(VECM)+PADA+PERAMALAN+DATA+NILAI+EKSPOR+DAN+NILAI+IMPOR+SELURUH+KOMODITAS+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG+TAHUN+2022&rft.creator=MEGA+%2C+PUTRI&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Data+deret+waktu+merupakan+rangkaian+data+pengamatan+yang+dihitung%2C+diukur%2C+dan+dihimpun+selama+kurun+waktu+tertentu+secara+berurutan.+Sedangkan+data+deret+waktu+multivarat+adalah+data+deret+waktu+yang+melibatkan+lebih+dari+satu+variabel+dan+antar+variabelnya+memiliki+hubungan+atau+keterkaitan.+Data+deret+waktu+multivariat+dapat+digunakan+untuk+pemodelan+dan+peramalan+dalam+berbagai+bidang+kehidupan.+Model+peramalan+data+deret+waktu+multivariat+yang+dapat+digunakan+salah+satunya+adalah+model+Vector+Error+Correction+Model+(VECM).+Model+VECM+merupakan+turunan+dari+model+Vector+Autoregressive+(VAR)+untuk+data+tidak+stasioner+dan+terdapat+hubungan+kointegrasi.+Model+VAR+merupakan+model+peramalan+data+deret+waktu+multivariat+hasil+regresi+dari+nilai-nilai+pada+periode+sebelumnya.+Data+deret+waktu+multivariat+yang+digunakan+pada+penelitian+ini+adalah+data+Nilai+Ekspor+dan+Nilai+Impor+seluruh+komoditas+di+Provinsi+Lampung+tahun+2015-2021.+Penelitian+ini+bertujuan+untuk+melakukan+peramalan+pada+periode+Januari+sampai+Desember+2022+dengan+model+VECM.+Berdasarkan+data+diperoleh+model+VECM+yaitu+model+VECM+(1)+dengan+nilai+MAPE+sebesar+17%2C01%25.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata+Kunci+%3A+Peramalan%2C+VECM%2C+Nilai+Ekspor%2C+Nilai+Impor.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AABSTRACT%0D%0A%0D%0ATime+series+data+is+a+series+of+observational+data+that+is+counted%2C+measured%2C+and+collected+over+a+certain+period+of+time+sequentially.+Meanwhile%2C+multivariate+time+series+data+are+time+series+data+that+involve+more+than+one+variable+and+the+variables+have+a+relationship+or+relationship+between+them.+Multivariate+time+series+data+can+be+used+for+modeling+and+forecasting+in+various+fields+of+life.+One+of+the+forecasting+models+for+multivariate+time+series+data+that+can+be+used+is+the+Vector+Error+Correction+Model+(VECM).+The+VECM+model+is+derived+from+the+Vector+Autoregressive+(VAR)+model+for+non-stationary+data+and+there+is+a+cointegration+relationship.+The+VAR+model+is+a+model+for+forecasting+multivariate+time+series+data+with+regression+results+from+values+in+the+previous+period.+The+multivariate+time+series+data+used+in+this+study+are+Export+Value+and+Import+Value+data+for+all+commodities+in+Lampung+Province+in+2015-2021.+This+study+aims+to+forecast+the+period+from+January+to+December+2022+using+the+VECM+model.+Based+on+the+data+obtained+the+VECM+model+is+VECM+(1)+with+a+MAPE+value+of+17.01%25.%0D%0A%0D%0AKeyword+%3A+Forcasting%2C+VECM%2C+Export+Value%2C+Import+Value.&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2023-07-10&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73980%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73980%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73980%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++MEGA+%2C+PUTRI++(2023)+PENERAPAN+MODEL+VECTOR+ERROR+CORRECTION+MODEL+(VECM)+PADA+PERAMALAN+DATA+NILAI+EKSPOR+DAN+NILAI+IMPOR+SELURUH+KOMODITAS+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG+TAHUN+2022.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F73980%2F