?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=1917031026&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=IMPLEMENTASI+METODE+HYBRID+VECTOR+AUTOREGRESSIVE+(VAR)+-+CONVOLUTIONAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(CNN)+DALAM+PERAMALAN+JUMLAH+UANG+BEREDAR+DI+INDONESIA+&rft.creator=ARDELIA%2C++MAHARANI+SULANDRA+&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Peramalan+ekonomi+telah+menjadi+komponen+penting+dalam+pengambilan+keputusan+di+berbagai+sektor.+Salah+satu+aspek+yang+menjadi+perhatian+utama+dalam+peramalan+ekonomi+adalah+jumlah+uang+beredar+dalam+suatu+perekonomian.+Vector+Autoregressive+(VAR)+merupakan+metode+yang+cocok+digunakan+untuk+melakukan+peramalan%2C++tetapi++mengalami++kesulitan+untuk+menghadapi++pola+data+nonlinier.+Convolutional+Neural+Network+(CNN)+merupakan+metode+yang+diharapkan+mampu+untuk+menangkap+pola+data+nonlinier+pada+data+yang+sulit+diatasi+oleh+model+VAR.+Oleh+karena+itu%2C+digunakan+metode+hybrid+VAR-CNN+yang+diharapkan+mampu+melakukan+prediksi+dan+peramalan+yang+lebih+akurat.+++Dalam+penelitian+ini+dilakukan+peramalan+menggunakan+metode+hybrid+VAR+%E2%80%93CNN+untuk+periode+satu+tahun+yang+akan+datang+yaitu+Juli+2022+hingga+Juni+2023.++Metode+hybrid+VAR-+CNN+terdiri+dari+2+model+utama+yaitu+model+pertama++yang+dibangun+dengan+data+prediksi+VAR+sedangkan+model+kedua+dibangun+dengan+data+residual+dari+VAR.+Metode+hybrid+VAR-CNN+dengan+skema+80%25+data+training+dan+20%25+data+testing+menghasilkan+model+peramalan+terbaik+dibandingkan+dengan+metode+lainnya+berdasarkan+nilai+MAPE%2C+nilai+supremum+(D)+dan+statistik+uji+(p-value)+yang+diperoleh.%0D%0AKata+Kunci+%3A+VAR%2C+CNN%2C++Hybrid+VAR-CNN%2C++Peramalan+%2C+Jumlah+Uang+Beredar%0D%0A+%0D%0AEconomic+forecasting+has+become+an+important+component+of+decision-making+in+various+sectors.+One+aspect+that+is+of+major+concern+in+economic+forecasting+is+the+money+supply+in+an+economy.++Vector+Autoregressive+(VAR)+is+a+suitable+method+for+forecasting%2C+but+has+difficulty+dealing+with+nonlinear+data+patterns.+Convolutional+Neural+Network+(CNN)+is+a+method+that+is+expected+to+be+able+to+capture+nonlinear+data+patterns+in+data+that+are+difficult+to+overcome+by+the+VAR+model.+Therefore%2C+a+hybrid+VAR-CNN+method+is+used+which+is+expected+to+perform+more+accurate+prediction+and+forecasting.+In+this+research%2C+forecasting+is+done+using+the+hybrid+VAR+-CNN+method+for+the+upcoming+one-year+period%2C+namely+July+2022+to+June+2023.++The+hybrid+VAR-CNN+method+consists+of+2+main+models%2C+namely+the+first+model+built+with+VAR+prediction+data+while+the+second+model+is+built+with+residual+data+from+VAR.++The+hybrid+VAR-CNN+method+with+80%25+training+data+and+20%25+testing+data+scheme+produces+the+best+forecasting+model+compared+to+other+methods+based+on+the+MAPE+value%2C+supremum+value+(D)+and+test+statistics+(p-value)+obtained.%0D%0AKeywords+%3A+VAR%2C+CNN%2C+Hybrid+VAR-CNN%2C+Forecasting%2C+Money+Circulating%0D%0A%0D%0A&rft.publisher=MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM&rft.date=2023-11-01&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F77531%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F77531%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F77531%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++ARDELIA%2C+MAHARANI+SULANDRA+++(2023)+IMPLEMENTASI+METODE+HYBRID+VECTOR+AUTOREGRESSIVE+(VAR)+-+CONVOLUTIONAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(CNN)+DALAM+PERAMALAN+JUMLAH+UANG+BEREDAR+DI+INDONESIA.++MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F77531%2F