?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=2017031088&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PERBANDINGAN+METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT+WINTERS+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE%0D%0AINTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA)+PADA+PERAMALAN%0D%0ACURAH+HUJAN+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG&rft.creator=Andi+Hari%2C+Yanto&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=Penelitian+ini+membandingkan+dua+metode+peramalan+yaitu+Penghalusan+Eksponensial+Holt-Winters+dan+Seasonal+Autoregressive+Integrated+Moving+Average+(SARIMA)+pada+data+curah+hujan+di+Provinsi+Lampung+dari+tahun+2011+hingga+2022.+Metode+Holt-Winters+digunakan+dengan+pendekatan+aditif%2C+sedangkan+SARIMA+dikembangkan+dengan+kombinasi+orde+(p%2Cd%2Cq)+dan+musiman+(P%2CD%2CQ)+berdasarkan+analisis+ACF+dan+PACF.+Berdasarkan+evaluasi+menggunakan+Mean+Absolute+Error+(MAE)+dan+Root+Mean+Square+Error+(RMSE)%2C+metode+SARIMA+dengan+model+SARIMA+(2%2C0%2C3)+(0%2C1%2C1)12+terbukti+lebih+baik+dengan+nilai+MAE+dan+RMSE+yang+lebih+kecil+dibandingkan+metode+Holt-Winters.+Peramalan+curah+hujan+dengan+metode+SARIMA+untuk+6+bulan+ke+depan+menunjukkan+penurunan+curah+hujan+hingga+bulan+Juni+2023.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+peramalan%2C+curah+hujan%2C+Holt-Winters%2C+SARIMA%2C+evaluasi+model.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0Aabstract%0D%0A%0D%0AThis+research+compares+two+forecasting+methods%2C+Holt-Winters+Exponential+Smoothing+and+Seasonal+Autoregressive+Integrated+Moving+Average+(SARIMA)+on+rainfall+data+in+Lampung+Province+from+2011+to+2022.+The+Holt-Winters+method+is+used+with+an+additive+approach%2C+while+SARIMA+is+developed+with+a+combination+of+(p%2Cd%2Cq)+orders+and+seasonal+(P%2CD%2CQ)+based+on+ACF+and+PACF+analysis.+Based+on+the+evaluation+using+Mean+Absolute+Error+(MAE)+and+Root+Mean+Square+Error+(RMSE)%2C+the+SARIMA+method+with+the+SARIMA+model+(2%2C0%2C3)+(0%2C1%2C1)12+is+proven+to+be+better+with+MAE+and+RMSE+values+are+smaller+than+the+Holt-Winters+method.+The+rainfall+forecasting+using+the+SARIMA+method+for+the+next+6+months+shows+a+decrease+in+rainfall+until+June+2023.%0D%0A%0D%0AKeywords%3A+forecasting%2C+rainfall%2C+Holt-Winters%2C+SARIMA%2C+model+evaluation.&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+&rft.date=2024-12-11&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F81104%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F81104%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F81104%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++Andi+Hari%2C+Yanto++(2024)+PERBANDINGAN+METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT+WINTERS+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA)+PADA+PERAMALAN+CURAH+HUJAN+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG.++FAKULTAS+MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F81104%2F