?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=ANALISIS+PREDIKSI+KEJADIAN+EL+NINO+DENGAN+MENGGUNAKAN%0D%0A%0D%0AMETODE+ARTIFICIAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(ANN)%0D%0A(STUDI+KASUS%3A+KABUPATEN+LAMPUNG+UTARA)&rft.creator=FIDIA%2C+WATI&rft.subject=600+Teknologi+(ilmu+terapan)&rft.subject=620+Ilmu+teknik+dan+ilmu+yang+berkaitan&rft.description=Sebagai+sebuah+negara+tropis%2C+Indonesia+mengalami+dua+musim+dan+seringkali%0D%0Aterkena+dampak+dari+fenomena+El-Nino%2C+yang+dapat+menyebabkan+ketidakteraturan%0D%0Apola+curah+hujan+dan+meningkatkan+tingkat+kekeringan.+Masalah+yang+menjadi%0D%0Afokus+penelitian+adalah+perlunya+upaya+untuk+mengurangi+dan+mengantisipasi%0D%0Adampak+El-Nino%2C+terutama+di+wilayah+seperti+Kabupaten+Lampung+Utara%2C+Provinsi%0D%0ALampung.+Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+mengevaluasi+keefektifan+model%0D%0AJaringan+Saraf+Tiruan+dalam+meramalkan+kejadian+El-Nino+serta+untuk%0D%0Amenghasilkan+model+prediksi+khusus+untuk+Kabupaten+Lampung+Utara.%0D%0APendekatan+metodologi+melibatkan+analisis+data+meteorologi+dari+ERA5+European%0D%0ACentre+for+Medium-Range+Weather+Forecasts+untuk+periode+dari+Januari+2014%0D%0Ahingga+Desember+2023.+Variabel-variabel+seperti+Evaporasi+Potensial%2C+komponen%0D%0Aangin+Zonal+(U)+dan+Meridional+(V)+pada+ketinggian+10+meter%2C+radiasi+termal%0D%0Apermukaan+bersih%2C+suhu+udara+pada+ketinggian+2+meter%2C+dan+total+presipitasi%0D%0Adipertimbangkan.+Hasil+dari+penelitian+ini+menunjukkan+bahwa+kombinasi+Jumlah%0D%0AHidden+Layer%2C+Learning+Rate%2C+dan+Konstanta+Momentum+berturut-turut+adalah%0D%0A%22%5B15%2C0.09%2C0.7%5D%22.+Pilihan+ini+dibuat+karena+kombinasi+model+ini+menghasilkan+MSE%0D%0ATraining+(0.001951)%2C+MSE+Testing+(0.001338)%2C+MAPE+Training+(14.28%25)%2C+dan%0D%0AMAPE+Testing+(14.31%25)+Oleh+karena+itu%2C+dapat+disimpulkan+bahwa+metode%0D%0AJaringan+Saraf+Tiruan+dapat+digunakan+untuk+meramalkan+kejadian+El-Nino+dengan%0D%0Amenjelaskan+dan+memprediksi+pola+presipitasi%2C+yang+kemudian+merepresentasikan%0D%0Akejadian+El-Nino+di+Kabupaten+Lampung+Utara.%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+El-Nino%2C+Artificial+Neural+Network+(ANN)%2C+Prediksi%0D%0A%0D%0AAs+a+tropical+country%2C+Indonesia+experiences+two+seasons+and+is+often+affected+by%0D%0Athe+El-Nino+phenomenon%2C+which+can+cause+irregular+rainfall+patterns+and+increase%0D%0Adrought+levels.+The+research+focuses+on+the+need+to+mitigate+and+anticipate+the%0D%0Aimpacts+of+El-Nino%2C+especially+in+areas+like+North+Lampung+Regency%2C+Lampung%0D%0AProvince.+The+aim+of+this+study+is+to+evaluate+the+effectiveness+of+the+Artificial%0D%0ANeural+Network+model+in+predicting+El-Nino+events+and+to+develop+a+specific%0D%0Aprediction+model+for+North+Lampung+Regency.+The+methodological+approach%0D%0Ainvolves+analyzing+meteorological+data+from+the+ERA5+European+Centre+for%0D%0AMedium-Range+Weather+Forecasts+for+the+period+from+January+2014+to+December%0D%0A2023.+Variables+such+as+Potential+Evaporation%2C+Zonal+(U)+and+Meridional+(V)+wind%0D%0Acomponents+at+a+height+of+10+meters%2C+net+surface+thermal+radiation%2C+air+temperature%0D%0Aat+a+height+of+2+meters%2C+and+total+precipitation+are+considered.+The+results+of+this%0D%0Astudy+indicate+that+the+sequential+combination+of+the+Number+of+Hidden+Layers%2C%0D%0ALearning+Rate%2C+and+Momentum+Constant+is+%22%5B15%2C0.09%2C0.7%5D%22.+This+choice+is+made%0D%0Abecause+this+model+combination+yields+Training+Mean+Squared+Error+(0.001951)%2C%0D%0ATesting+Mean+Squared+Error+(0.001338)%2C+Training+Mean+Absolute+Percentage+Error%0D%0A(14.28%25)%2C+and+Testing+Mean+Absolute+Percentage+Error+(14.31%25).+Therefore%2C+it+can%0D%0A%0D%0Abe+concluded+that+the+Artificial+Neural+Network+method+can+be+used+to+predict+El-%0D%0ANino+events+by+explaining+and+forecasting+precipitation+patterns%2C+which+then%0D%0A%0D%0Arepresent+El-Nino+occurrences+in+North+Lampung+Regency.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+El-Nino%2C+Artificial+Neural+Network+(ANN)%2C+Prediction&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+TEKNIK&rft.date=2024-07-12&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82307%2F1%2FAbstrak%2520-%2520Fidia%2520Wati.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82307%2F2%2FBAB%25201-5%2520-%2520Fidia%2520Wati.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82307%2F3%2FBab%25201-5%2520%2528Tanpa%2520Pembahasan%2529%2520-%2520Fidia%2520Wati.pdf&rft.identifier=++FIDIA%2C+WATI++(2024)+ANALISIS+PREDIKSI+KEJADIAN+EL+NINO+DENGAN+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+ARTIFICIAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(ANN)+(STUDI+KASUS%3A+KABUPATEN+LAMPUNG+UTARA).++FAKULTAS+TEKNIK%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82307%2F