?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=ANALISIS+PREDIKSI+KEJADIAN+EL+NINO+DENGAN+MENGGUNAKAN%0D%0A%0D%0AMETODE+ARTIFICIAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(ANN)%0D%0A(STUDI+KASUS%3A+KABUPATEN+MESUJI+LAMPUNG)&rft.creator=RAFI+RAMADHAN%2C+CH&rft.subject=600+Teknologi+(ilmu+terapan)&rft.subject=620+Ilmu+teknik+dan+ilmu+yang+berkaitan&rft.subject=690+Pembangunan+gedung&rft.description=Indonesia+sebagai+negara+tropis+mengalami+dua+musim+dan+sering+terpengaruh+oleh%0D%0AEl-Nino+yang+dapat+menyebabkan+pola+curah+hujan+yang+tidak+teratur+dan%0D%0Apeningkatan+tingkat+kekeringan.+Masalah+penelitian+berkisar+pada+kebutuhan+untuk%0D%0Ameminimalisir+dan+mempersiapkan+dampak+El-Nino%2C+terutama+di+daerah+seperti%0D%0AKabupaten+Mesuji%2C+Provinsi+Lampung.+Tujuan+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+menilai%0D%0Akelayakan+model+Artificial+Neural+Network+dalam+memprediksi+peristiwa+El-Nino%0D%0Adan+untuk+mendapatkan+model+prediksi+El-Nino+di+Kabupaten+Mesuji.+Metodologi%0D%0A%0D%0Amelibatkan+penggunaan+data+meteorologi+dari+ERA5+European+Centre+for+Medium-%0D%0ARange+Weather+Forecasts+untuk+periode+dari+Januari+2014+hingga+Desember+2023.%0D%0A%0D%0AVariabel+seperti+Evaporasi+Potensial%2C+komponen+angin+Zonal+(U)+dan+Meridional%0D%0A(V)+pada+ketinggian+10+meter%2C+radiasi+termal+permukaan+bersih%2C+suhu+udara+pada%0D%0Aketinggian+2+meter%2C+dan+total+presipitasi+dipertimbangkan.+Hasil+dari+penelitian+ini%0D%0Adidapatkan+kombinasi+dengan+Jumlah+Hidden+Layer%2C+Learning+Rate%2C+dan+Konstanta%0D%0AMomentum+secara+berurutan+dengan+nilai+sebagai+berikut%3A+%22%5B15%2C0.08%2C0.6%5D%22+.+Hal+ini%0D%0Akarena+kombinasi+Model+ini+menghasilkan+MSE+Training+(0.00105)%2C+MSE+Testing%0D%0A(0.00123)%2C+MAPE+Training+(14.61%25)+dan+MAPE+Testing+(12.91%25).+Maka+prediksi%0D%0Akejadian+El-Nino+menggunakan+metode+Artificial+Neural+Network+dapat%0D%0Amenjelaskan+dan+meramalkan+kejadian+presipitasi+yang+kemudian%0D%0Amerepresentasikan+kejadian+El-Nino+di+Kabupaten+Mesuji.%0D%0AKata+kunci%3A+El-Nino%2C+Artificial+Neural+Network+(ANN)%2C+Prediksi%0D%0A%0D%0AIndonesia%2C+as+a+tropical+country%2C+experiences+two+seasons+and+is+often+affected+by%0D%0AEl-Nino%2C+which+can+lead+to+irregular+rainfall+patterns+and+increased+levels+of%0D%0Adrought.+The+research+problem+revolves+around+the+need+to+minimize+and+prepare%0D%0Afor+the+impacts+of+El-Nino%2C+particularly+in+areas+like+Mesuji+Regency%2C+Lampung%0D%0AProvince.+The+aim+of+this+study+is+to+assess+the+feasibility+of+the+Artificial+Neural%0D%0ANetwork+model+in+predicting+El-Nino+events+and+to+obtain+a+predictive+model+for%0D%0AEl-Nino+in+Mesuji+Regency.+The+methodology+involves+the+use+of+meteorological%0D%0Adata+from+the+ERA5+European+Centre+for+Medium-Range+Weather+Forecasts+for+the%0D%0Aperiod+from+January+2014+to+December+2023.+Variables+such+as+Potential%0D%0AEvaporation%2C+Zonal+(U)+and+Meridional+(V)+wind+components+at+a+height+of+10%0D%0Ameters%2C+Net+surface+thermal+radiation%2C+Air+temperature+at+a+height+of+2+meters%2C+and%0D%0ATotal+precipitation+are+considered.+The+results+of+this+study+found+a+combination%0D%0Awith+the+Number+of+Hidden+Layers%2C+Learning+Rate%2C+and+Momentum+Constant+in+the%0D%0Afollowing+sequence%3A+%E2%80%9C%5B15%2C0.08%2C0.6%5D%E2%80%9D.+This+is+because+this+Model+combination%0D%0Aproduced+an+MSE+Training+(0.00105)%2C+MSE+Testing+(0.00123)%2C+MAPE+Training%0D%0A(14.61%25)%2C+and+MAPE+Testing+(12.91%25).+Therefore%2C+the+prediction+of+El-Nino%0D%0Aevents+using+the+Artificial+Neural+Network+method+can+explain+and+forecast%0D%0Aprecipitation+events%2C+which+then+represent+the+occurrence+of+El-Nino+in+Mesuji%0D%0ARegency.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+El-Nino%2C+Artificial+Neural+Network+(ANN)%2C+Prediction&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+TEKNIK&rft.date=2024-07-12&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82870%2F1%2FABSTRAK%2520-%2520Rafi%2520Ramadhan%2520Ch.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82870%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL%2520RAFI%2520RAMADHAN%2520CH_2055011019%2520-%2520Rafi%2520Ramadhan%2520Ch.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82870%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520RAFI%2520RAMADHAN%2520CH_2055011019%2520%2528TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN%2529%2520-%2520Rafi%2520Ramadhan%2520Ch.pdf&rft.identifier=++RAFI+RAMADHAN%2C+CH++(2024)+ANALISIS+PREDIKSI+KEJADIAN+EL+NINO+DENGAN+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+ARTIFICIAL+NEURAL+NETWORK+(ANN)+(STUDI+KASUS%3A+KABUPATEN+MESUJI+LAMPUNG).++FAKULTAS+TEKNIK%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F82870%2F