<> "The repository administrator has not yet configured an RDF license."^^ . <> . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS"^^ . "Model Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) adalah salah satu model yang\r\ndapat digunakan untuk peramalan dengan mempertimbangkan variabel\r\nindependen. Pada model BSTS , algoritma Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)\r\ndigunakan untuk mensimulasikan distribusi posterior yang menghaluskan hasil\r\nperamalan lebih akurat dengan menggabungkan hasil dari sejumlah besar model\r\npotensial melalui rata-rata model Bayesian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk\r\nmengevaluasi penggunaan model BSTS dalam peramalan data Ekspor Impor\r\nMigas dan Non-Migas di Indonesia dari Januari 2009 hingga Desember 2023.\r\nPenelitian ini memfokuskan pada identifikasi model BSTS terbaik berdasarkan\r\nnilai R-squared, dengan menggunakan komponen tren, musiman, dan regresi serta\r\nmengidentifikasi variabel-variabel yang signifikan memengaruhi nilai Ekspor\r\nImpor Migas dan Non-Migas menggunakan nilai posterior inclusion probability.\r\nHasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model BSTS terbaik mencakup komponen\r\nstate tren linear lokal dan musiman, tren linear semi lokal dan musiman, serta level\r\nlokal dan musiman dengan jumlah musim yang tepat dan iterasi MCMC yang\r\noptimal.\r\n\r\nKata kunci: model Bayesian Structural Time Series, Markov Chain Monte Carlo,\r\nPrior Spike dan Slab\r\n\r\nBayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model is one of the models that can be\r\nused for forecasting while considering independent variables. In BSTS model,\r\nMarkov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is employed to simulate the\r\nposterior distribution, which smoothens the forecasted results more accurately by\r\ncombining results from numerous potential models through Bayesian model\r\naveraging. This study aims to evaluate the utilization of the BSTS model in\r\nforecasting the data of Oil and Non-Oil Exports and Imports in Indonesia from\r\nJanuary 2009 to December 2023. The research focuses on identifying the best\r\nBSTS model based on the R-squared value, utilizing components such as trends,\r\nseasonality, and regression, and identifying significant variables that affect Oil and\r\nNon-Oil Exports and Imports using the posterior inclusion probability. The\r\nanalysis results indicate that the best BSTS model includes local linear trend and\r\nseasonal state components, semi-local linear trend and seasonal components, as\r\nwell as local level and seasonal components with the appropriate number of\r\nseasons and optimal MCMC iterations.\r\nKeywords: Bayesian Structural Time Series Model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo,\r\nPrior Spike dan Slab."^^ . "2024-06-03" . . . . . "FAKULTAS MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM"^^ . . . . . . . " Annisa R.S\t"^^ . "Claudya"^^ . " Annisa R.S\t Claudya"^^ . . . . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (File PDF)"^^ . . . "1. ABSTRAK - Claudya Annisa.pdf"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (File PDF)"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (File PDF)"^^ . . . "3. SKRIPSI TANPA BAB PEMBAHASAN - Claudya Annisa.pdf"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "lightbox.jpg"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "preview.jpg"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "medium.jpg"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "small.jpg"^^ . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . "IMPLEMENTASI MODEL BAYESIAN STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES\r\n\r\nTERHADAP PREDIKSI NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR MIGAS DAN NON-\r\nMIGAS (Other)"^^ . . . . . . 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