?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=2157031002&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PERAMALAN+PENGUNJUNG+PARIWISATA+DI+INDONESIA+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+EXPONENTIAL+SMOOTHING+HOLT-WINTERS+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+MULTIPLICATIVE+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA)&rft.creator=VEDISYA+%2C+NATASIA+&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=This+study+aims+to+forecast+the+number+of+passengers+at+Kualanamu+International+Airport+using+two+time+series+forecasting+approaches%2C+namely+the+additive+Holt-Winters+method+and+the+ARIMA+model+with+intervention.+The+data+used+is+monthly+data+on+the+number+of+passengers+from+January+2016+to+December+2024.+The+additive+Holt-Winters+model+is+built+through+optimization+of+smoothing+parameters+(%CE%B1%2C+%CE%B2%2C+%CE%B3)+using+grid+search+to+minimize+the+MAPE+value%2C+while+the+ARIMA+(1%2C2%2C1)+model+with+pulse+intervention+at+the+28th+point+(May+2018)+is+used+with+outlier+detection.+The+performance+of+the+two+models+was+compared+based+on+the+prediction+accuracy+for+2024+using+the+MAPE+and+MSE+metrics.+The+analysis+shows+that+the+Holt-Winters+model+provides+more+accurate+results+than+the+ARIMA+model+with+intervention.+Furthermore%2C+the+best+model+is+used+to+forecast+the+number+of+passengers+in+2025.+These+forecasting+results+are+expected+to+provide+useful+input+in+operational+planning+and+strategic+decision+making+at+Kualanamu+International+Airport.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+forecasting%2C+tourism%2C+Holt-Winters+multiplicative%2C+SARIMA%2C+MSE%2C+MAPE.%0D%0A%0D%0APariwisata+merupakan+salah+satu+sektor+penting+dalam+perekonomian+Indonesia+yang+memberikan+kontribusi+signi%EF%AC%81kan+terhadap+pendapatan+negara.+Oleh+karena+itu%2C+peramalan+jumlah+pengunjung+pariwisata+menjadi+hal+yang+krusial+dalam+mendukung+perencanaan+dan+pengambilan+kebijakan+strategis.+Penelitian+ini+bertujuan+untuk+meramalkan+jumlah+pengunjung+pariwisata+di+Indonesia+dengan+membandingkan+dua+metode+peramalan%2C+yaitu+Exponential+Smoothing+Holt-Winters+model+multiplicative+dan+Seasonal+Autoregressive+Integrated+Moving+Average+(SARIMA).+Data+yang+digunakan+berupa+data+bulanan+jumlah+pengunjung+pariwisata+ke+Indonesia+selama+periode+tertentu.+Proses+peramalan+dilakukan+dengan+mengidenti%EF%AC%81kasi+model+terbaik+dari+masing-masing+metode+berdasarkan+nilai+Mean+Squared+Error+(MSE)+dan+Mean+Absolute+Percentage+Error+(MAPE).+Hasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+bahwa+kedua+metode+mampu+memberikan+peramalan+yang+cukup+baik%2C+namun+terdapat+perbedaan+dalam+tingkat+akurasi.+Metode+yang+menghasilkan+nilai+kesalahan+terkecil+dipilih+sebagai+model+terbaik+dalam+memproyeksikan+jumlah+pengunjung+pariwisata+di+masa+depan.+Temuan+ini+diharapkan+dapat+menjadi+acuan+bagi+pemerintah+dan+pemangku+kebijakan+dalam+mengembangkan+strategi+pengelolaan+sektor+pariwisata+di+Indonesia+secara+lebih+optimal.+Hasil+analisis+menunjukkan+bahwa+penggunaan+metode+SARIMA+efektif+untuk+prediksi+data+karena+hasil+prediksinya+cukup+mendekati+data+aktual+dengan+nilai+MAPE+sebesar+73.94+dan+MSE+sebesar+1.4228.%0D%0AKata-kata+kunci%3A+peramalan%2C+pariwisata%2C+Holt-Winters+multiplicative%2C+SARIMA%2C+MSE%2C+MAPE.&rft.publisher=MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+&rft.date=2025-04-23&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88058%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88058%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88058%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++VEDISYA+%2C+NATASIA+++(2025)+PERAMALAN+PENGUNJUNG+PARIWISATA+DI+INDONESIA+MENGGUNAKAN+METODE+EXPONENTIAL+SMOOTHING+HOLT-WINTERS+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+MULTIPLICATIVE+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA).++MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88058%2F