?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=2117031121&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=PERAMALAN+JUMLAH+PENUMPANG+PESAWAT+INTERNASIONAL+BANDAR+UDARA+KUALANAMU+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+HOLT-WINTERS+ADITIF+DAN+ARIMA+DENGAN+ANALISIS+INTERVENSI&rft.creator=ANNISA+%2C+NURUL+FAUZIAH&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=This+study+aims+to+forecast+the+number+of+passengers+at+Kualanamu+International+Airport+using+two+time+series+forecasting+approaches%2C+namely+the+additive+Holt-Winters+method+and+the+ARIMA+model+with+intervention.+The+data+used+is+monthly+data+on+the+number+of+passengers+from+January+2016+to+December+2024.+The+additive+Holt-Winters+model+is+built+through+optimization+of+smoothing+parameters+(%CE%B1%2C+%CE%B2%2C+%CE%B3)+using+grid+search+to+minimize+the+MAPE+value%2C+while+the+ARIMA+(1%2C2%2C1)+model+with+pulse+intervention+at+the+28th+point+(May+2018)+is+used+with+outlier+detection.+The+performance+of+the+two+models+was+compared+based+on+the+prediction+accuracy+for+2024+using+the+MAPE+and+MSE+metrics.+The+analysis+shows+that+the+Holt-Winters+model+provides+more+accurate+results+than+the+ARIMA+model+with+intervention.+Furthermore%2C+the+best+model+is+used+to+forecast+the+number+of+passengers+in+2025.+These+forecasting+results+are+expected+to+provide+useful+input+in+operational+planning+and+strategic+decision+making+at+Kualanamu+International+Airport.%0D%0AKeywords%3A+Forecasting%2C+ARIMA%2C+Intervention%2C+Holt-Winters%2C+Kualanamu+Airport.%0D%0A%0D%0APenelitian+ini+bertujuan+untuk+meramalkan+jumlah+penumpang+di+Bandara+Internasional+Kualanamu+menggunakan+dua+pendekatan+peramalan+deret+waktu%2C+yaitu+metode+Holt-Winters+aditif+dan+model+ARIMA+dengan+intervensi.+Data+yang+digunakan+adalah+data+bulanan+jumlah+penumpang+dari+Januari+2016+hingga+Desember+2024.+Model+Holt-Winters+aditif+dibangun+melalui+optimasi+parameter+penghalusan+(%CE%B1%2C+%CE%B2%2C+%CE%B3)+menggunakan+grid+search+untuk+meminimalkan+nilai+kuadrat+terkecil%2C+sedangkan+model+ARIMA+(1%2C2%2C1)+dengan+intervensi+pulse+di+titik+ke-28+(Mei+2018)+digunakan+dengan+deteksi+outlier.+Kinerja+kedua+model+dibandingkan+berdasarkan+akurasi+prediksi+tahun+2024+dengan+menggunakan+metrik+MAPE+dan+MSE.+Hasil+analisis+menunjukkan+bahwa+model+Holt-Winters+memberikan+hasil+yang+lebih+akurat+dibandingkan+model+ARIMA+dengan+intervensi.+Selanjutnya%2C+model+terbaik+digunakan+untuk+meramalkan+jumlah+penumpang+pada+tahun+2025.+Hasil+peramalan+ini+diharapkan+dapat+memberikan+masukan+yang+bermanfaat+dalam+perencanaan+operasional+dan+pengambilan+keputusan+strategis+di+Bandara+Internasional+Kualanamu.%0D%0AKata-kata+kunci%3A+Peramalan%2C+ARIMA%2C+Intervensi%2C+Holt-Winters%2C+Bandara+Kualanamu&rft.publisher=MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+&rft.date=2025-04-21&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88060%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88060%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88060%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++ANNISA+%2C+NURUL+FAUZIAH++(2025)+PERAMALAN+JUMLAH+PENUMPANG+PESAWAT+INTERNASIONAL+BANDAR+UDARA+KUALANAMU+MENGGUNAKAN+MODEL+HOLT-WINTERS+ADITIF+DAN+ARIMA+DENGAN+ANALISIS+INTERVENSI.++MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88060%2F