?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_id=2117031120&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT-WINTERS+MODEL+ADITIF+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA)+DALAM+MERAMALKAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU+MUSIMAN&rft.creator=LISA+%2C+ANDRIYANI&rft.subject=500+ilmu+pengetahuan+alam+dan+matematika&rft.subject=510+Matematika&rft.description=In+the+transportation+sector%2C+forecasting+plays+an+important+role+in+strategic+planning+and+service+optimization%2C+so+the+right+method+is+needed.+This+research+compares+the+Holt-Winters+exponential+smoothing+additive+model+and+the+SARIMA+method+in+forecasting+the+number+of+train+passengers+in+Sumatra.+The+purpose+of+this+study+is+to+determine+the+most+accurate+method+using+the+MAPE+and+MSE+error+indicators.The+forecasting+results+show+that+the+SARIMA+(0%2C1%2C1)+(2%2C1%2C1)12+model+provides+more+accurate+results+with+a+MAPE+value+of+27.30+and+MSE+of+0.29%2C+compared+to+the+additive+Holt-Winters+method+which+produces+a+MAPE+of+45.91+and+MSE+of+69.21.%0D%0Akeywords%3A+Forecasting%2C+Time+Series%2C+Additive+Holt-Winters%2C+SARIMA%2C+Railway+Passengers%2C+MAPE%2C+MSE.%0D%0A%0D%0ADalam+sektor+transportasi%2C+peramalan+berperan+penting+dalam+perencanaan+strategis+dan+optimalisasi+layanan%2C+sehingga+diperlukan+metode+yang+tepat+dalam+meram-+lakannya.+Penelitian+ini+membandingkan+metode+penghalusan+eksponensial+Holt-+Winters+model+aditif+dan+metode+SARIMA+dalam+meramalkan+jumlah+penumpang+kereta+api+di+Sumatera.+Tujuan+dari+penelitian+ini+adalah+untuk+mengetahui+metode+yang+paling+akurat+dengan+menggunakan+indikator+kesalahan+MAPE+dan+MSE.+Ha-sil+peramalan+menunjukkan+bahwa+model+SARIMA+(0%2C1%2C1)+(2%2C1%2C1)12+memberikan+hasil+yang+lebih+akurat+dengan+nilai+MAPE+sebesar+27%2C30+dan+MSE+sebesar+0%2C29%2C+dibandingkan+dengan+metode+Holt-Winters+aditif+yang+menghasilkan+MAPE+sebe-+sar+45%2C91+dan+MSE+sebesar+69%2C21.%0D%0A%0D%0AKata-kata+kunci%3A+Peramalan%2C+Deret+Waktu%2C+Holt-Winters+Aditif%2C+SARIMA%2C+Pe-+numpang+Kereta+Api%2C+MAPE%2C+MSE.&rft.publisher=MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+&rft.date=2025-04-22&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88065%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88065%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88065%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++LISA+%2C+ANDRIYANI++(2025)+METODE+PENGHALUSAN+EKSPONENSIAL+HOLT-WINTERS+MODEL+ADITIF+DAN+METODE+SEASONAL+AUTOREGRESSIVE+INTEGRATED+MOVING+AVERAGE+(SARIMA)+DALAM+MERAMALKAN+DATA+DERET+WAKTU+MUSIMAN.++MATEMATIKA+DAN+ILMU+PENGETAHUAN+ALAM+%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F88065%2F