?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=ANALISIS+VOLATILITAS+HARGA+CABAI+RAWIT%0D%0ADI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG&rft.creator=Ula+Nadya+%2C+Kuntari+&rft.subject=630+Pertanian+dan+teknologi+yang+berkaitan&rft.description=Pemahaman+terhadap+dinamika+harga+dan+volatilitas+harga+pangan+menjadi%0D%0Aperhatian+publik+secara+luas+karena+sering+terjadinya+fluktuasi+harga+yang+tajam%0D%0Asebagai+konsekuensi+dari+gejolak+ekonomi.+Tidak+tercukupinya+pasokan+cabai+rawit%0D%0Adi+Provinsi+Lampung+dan+rantai+pasok+yang+panjang%2C+memicu+terjadinya+fluktuasi%0D%0Aharga+yang+tidak+stabil+(volatilitas)+baik+di+tingkat+produsen+maupun+konsumen.%0D%0AOleh+karena+itu+penelitian+ini+perlu+dilakukan+untuk+menganalisis+tingkat+volatilitas%0D%0Aharga+komoditas+cabai+rawit+di+Provinsi+Lampung+serta+hubungan+kausalitas+antara%0D%0Aharga+cabai+rawit+di+tingkat+produsen+dan+konsumen.+Data+yang+digunakan+adalah%0D%0Adata+time+series+bulanan+harga+cabai+rawit+tingkat+produsen+dan+konsumen+dari%0D%0AJanuari+2014+hingga+Desember+2023.+Data+yang+digunakan+merupakan+data%0D%0Asekunder+yang+bersumber+dari+Badan+Pusat+Statistik.+Analisis+volatilitas+harga%0D%0Adilakukan+dengan+menggunakan+model+Autoregressive+Conditionally%0D%0AHeteroscedastic+Approach+(ARCH)+dan+Generalized+Autoregressive+Conditional%0D%0AHeteroscedasticity+(GARCH)+sedangkan+uji+untuk+mengetahui+arah+hubungan%0D%0Akausal+digunakan+uji+kausalitas+granger.+Hasil+penelitian+menunjukkan+bahwa+harga%0D%0Acabai+rawit+di+tingkat+produsen+di+Provinsi+Lampung+dikategorikan+sebagai%0D%0Avolatilitas+rendah%2C+sedangkan+harga+cabai+rawit+di+tingkat+konsumen+di+Provinsi%0D%0ALampung+dikategorikan+tinggi.+Hasil+uji+kausalitas+menunjukkan+adanya+hubungan%0D%0Asearah+antara+harga+cabai+rawit+tingkat+produsen+dengan+tingkat+konsumen+di%0D%0AProvinsi+Lampung.+Temuan+ini+memberikan+kontribusi+penting+bagi+perumusan%0D%0Akebijakan+intervensi+harga+dan+dukungan+yang+lebih+tepat+sasaran+pada+pelaku%0D%0Adalam+rantai+pasok+cabai+rawit+di+Provinsi+Lampung.%0D%0AKata+kunci+%3A+ARCH%2FGARCH%2C+Cabai+Rawit%2C+Kausalitas+Granger%2C+Volatilitas+Harga%0D%0A%0D%0AUnderstanding+the+dynamics+and+volatility+of+food+prices+has+garnered+widespread%0D%0Apublic+attention+due+to+frequent+sharp+price+fluctuations+resulting+from+economic%0D%0Aturbulence.+In+Lampung+Province%2C+insufficient+supply+of+chilli+pepper+and+a+lengthy%0D%0Asupply+chain+have+triggered+unstable+price+fluctuations+(volatility)+at+both+producer%0D%0Aand+consumer+levels.+Therefore%2C+this+study+aims+to+analyze+the+volatility+level+of%0D%0Achilli+pepper+prices+in+Lampung+Province+and+examine+the+causal+relationship%0D%0Abetween+prices+at+the+producer+and+consumer+levels.+The+study+utilizes+monthly+time%0D%0Aseries+data+on+chilli+pepper+prices+from+producers+and+consumers+spanning%0D%0AJanuary+2014+to+December+2023%2C+sourced+from+the+Central+Statistics+Agency.+Price%0D%0Avolatility+is+analyzed+using+the+Autoregressive+Conditional+Heteroscedasticity%0D%0A(ARCH)+and+Generalized+ARCH+(GARCH)+models%2C+while+the+Granger+causality%0D%0Atest+is+employed+to+determine+the+direction+of+the+causal+relationship.+The+findings%0D%0Aindicate+that+chilli+pepper+prices+at+the+producer+level+in+Lampung+Province+exhibit%0D%0Alow+volatility%2C+whereas+prices+at+the+consumer+level+show+high+volatility.%0D%0AFurthermore%2C+the+causality+test+reveals+a+unidirectional+relationship+from+producer%0D%0Aprices+to+consumer+prices.+These+results+provide+valuable+insights+for+formulating%0D%0Atargeted+price+intervention+policies+and+support+mechanisms+for+stakeholders%0D%0Awithin+the+chilli+pepper+supply+chain+in+Lampung+Province.%0D%0AKeywords+%3A+ARCH%2FGARCH%2C+Chili+Pepper%2C+Granger+Causality%2C+Price+Volatility&rft.publisher=FAKULTAS+PERTANIAN&rft.date=2025-06-10&rft.type=Skripsi&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F89029%2F1%2FABSTRAK.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F89029%2F2%2FSKRIPSI%2520FULL.pdf&rft.format=text&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F89029%2F3%2FSKRIPSI%2520TANPA%2520BAB%2520PEMBAHASAN.pdf&rft.identifier=++Ula+Nadya+%2C+Kuntari+++(2025)+ANALISIS+VOLATILITAS+HARGA+CABAI+RAWIT+DI+PROVINSI+LAMPUNG.++FAKULTAS+PERTANIAN%2C+UNIVERSITAS+LAMPUNG.+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fdigilib.unila.ac.id%2F89029%2F