Putri Rizki Indah Larasati, 1111021093 (2015) Analisis Hubungan Neraca Perdagangan dengan Nilai Tukar Riil (Studi Komparasi antara Indonesia-Jepang dan Indonesia-China). Universitas Lampung.
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Abstract
ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara neraca perdagangan dengan nilai tukar riil serta melihat perbandingan hubungan antara Indonesia-Jepang dan Indonesia-China. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model(ECM).Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dengan periode penelitian 2007:Q1- 2014:Q4Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan pada neraca perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, sedangkan variabel nilai tukar riil tidak signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia-China dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Variabel GDP Indonesia berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-Jepang dan Indonesia-China dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Variabel GDP Jepang tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek, tetapi dalam jangka panjang memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang. Variabel GDP China berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-China. Kata Kunci: Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang, Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China, Nilaitukarriil, GDP Indonesia, GDP Jepang, dan GDP China ABSTRACT This study aimed to analyze the relationship between trade balance with the real exchange rate and comparison of the relationship between Indonesia-Japan and Indonesia-China. The analysis tool is an Error Correction Model (ECM) .This study using time series data with research period 2007: Q1- 2014: Q4. Results from this study indicate that the real exchange rate variable take a negative and significant effect on the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan in the long and short run, while to variable real exchange rate is not significant effect to Indonesia-China trade balance in the short and long run. Variable GDP of Indonesian takea negative and significant effect on bilateral trade balance between Indonesia- Japan and Indonesia-China in the short and long run. Variable GDP of Japan is not significant in the short run, but in the long run have a positive and significant impact on the trade balance between Indonesia and Japan. Variable GDP of China take a positive and significant effect in the short long run on the balance of bilateral trade between Indonesia and China. Keywords: Indonesia-Japan Trade Balance, Indonesia-China trade balance, the realexchange rate, GDP ofIndonesian, GDP of Japan, andGDPof China
| Item Type: | Other |
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| Subjects: | H Ilmu Sosial = Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Prodi Ekonomi Pembangunan |
| Depositing User: | 9887573 . Digilib |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Aug 2015 02:25 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Aug 2015 02:26 |
| URI: | http://digilib.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/11887 |
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